Abstract The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights that climate change and ocean acidification are challenging the sustainable management of living marine resources (LMRs). Formal and systematic treatment of uncertainty in existing LMR projections, however, is lacking. We synthesize knowledge of how to address different sources of uncertainty by drawing from climate model intercomparison efforts. We suggest an ensemble of available models and projections, informed by observations, as a starting point to quantify uncertainties. Such an ensemble must be paired with analysis of the dominant uncertainties over different spatial scales, time horizons, and metrics. We use two examples: (i) global and regional projections of Sea Surface Temperature and (ii) projection of changes in potential catch of sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) in the 21st century, to illustrate this ensemble model approach to explore different types of uncertainties. Further effort should prioritize understanding dominant, undersampled dimensions of uncertainty, as well as the strategic collection of observations to quantify, and ultimately reduce, uncertainties. Our proposed framework will improve our understanding of future changes in LMR and the resulting risk of impacts to ecosystems and the societies under changing ocean conditions.
Previous studies have focused on changes in the geographical distribution of terrestrial biomes and species targeted by marine capture fisheries due to climate change impacts. Given mariculture's substantial contribution to global seafood production and its growing significance in recent decades, it is essential to evaluate the effects of climate change on mariculture and their socio-economic consequences. Here, we projected climate change impacts on the marine aquaculture diversity for 85 of the currently most commonly farmed fish and invertebrate species in the world's coastal and/or open ocean areas. Results of ensemble projections from three Earth system models and three species distribution models show that climate change may lead to a substantial redistribution of mariculture species richness potential, with an average of 10%-40% decline in the number of species being potentially suitable to be farmed in tropical to subtropical regions. In contrast, mariculture species richness potential is projected to increase by about 40% at higher latitudes under the 'no mitigation policy' scenario (RCP 8.5) by the mid-21st century. In Exclusive Economic Zones where mariculture is currently undertaken, we projected an average future decline of 1.3% and 5% in mariculture species richness potential under RCP 2.6 ('strong mitigation') and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the 2050s relative to the 2000s. Our findings highlight the opportunities and challenges for climate adaptation in the mariculture sector through the redistribution of farmed species and expansion of mariculture locations. Our results can help inform adaptation planning and governance mechanisms to minimize local environmental impacts and potential conflicts with other marine and coastal sectors in the future.
PERSEUS project aims to identify the most relevant pressures exerted on the ecosystems of the Southern European Seas (SES), highlighting knowledge and data gaps that endanger the achievement of SES Good Environmental Status (GES) as mandated by the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). A complementary approach has been adopted, by a meta-analysis of existing literature on pressure/impact/knowledge gaps summarized in tables related to the MSFD descriptors, discriminating open waters from coastal areas. A comparative assessment of the Initial Assessments (IAs) for five SES countries has been also independently performed. The comparison between meta-analysis results and IAs shows similarities for coastal areas only. Major knowledge gaps have been detected for the biodiversity, marine food web, marine litter and underwater noise descriptors. The meta-analysis also allowed the identification of additional research themes targeting research topics that are requested to the achievement of GES.
Abstract The “biological carbon pump” causes carbon sequestration in deep waters by downward transfer of organic matter, mostly as particles. This mechanism depends to a great extent on the uptake of CO 2 by marine plankton in surface waters and subsequent sinking of particulate organic carbon (POC) through the water column. Most of the sinking POC is remineralized during its downward transit, and modest changes in remineralization have substantial feedback on atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, but little is known about global variability in remineralization. Here we assess this variability based on modern underwater particle imaging combined with field POC flux data and discuss the potential sources of variations. We show a significant relationship between remineralization and the size structure of the phytoplankton assemblage. We obtain the first regionalized estimates of remineralization in biogeochemical provinces, where these estimates range between −50 and +100% of the commonly used globally uniform remineralization value. We apply the regionalized values to satellite‐derived estimates of upper ocean POC export to calculate regionalized and ocean‐wide deep carbon fluxes and sequestration. The resulting value of global organic carbon sequestration at 2000 m is 0.33 Pg C yr −1 , and 0.72 Pg C yr −1 at the depth of the top of the permanent pycnocline, which is up to 3 times higher than the value resulting from the commonly used approach based on uniform remineralization and constant sequestration depth. These results stress that variable remineralization and sequestration depth should be used to model ocean carbon sequestration and feedback on the atmosphere.
The global ocean is commonly partitioned into 4 biomes subdivided into 56 biogeochemical provinces (BGCPs) following the accepted partition proposed by Longhurst in 1998. Each province corresponds to a unique regional environment that shapes biodiversity and constrains ecosystem structure and functions. BGCPs are dynamic entities that change their spatial extent and position with climate and are expected to be pertubated in the near future by global climate change. Here, we characterize the changes in spatial distribution of BGCPs from 1950 to 2100 using three earth system models under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). We project a reorganisation of current distribution of BGCPs driven mostly by a poleward shift of their distributions (18.4 km in average per decade). Projection of the future distribution of BGCPs also revealed the emergence of new climate that has no analogue with past and current environmental conditions experienced by BGCPs . This novel environmental conditions, here named No-Analogue BGCPs State (NABS), will expand from 2040 to 2100 at a rate of 4.3 Mkm2 per decade (1.2% of the global ocean). We subsequently quantified the potential amount of marine species and fisheries catch that would experience such novel environmental conditions to roughly evaluate NABS impact on ecosystem services.
Biogeographical studies have traditionally focused on readily visible organisms, but recent technological advances are enabling analyses of the large-scale distribution of microscopic organisms, whose biogeographical patterns have long been debated. Here we assessed the global structure of plankton geography and its relation to the biological, chemical, and physical context of the ocean (the ‘seascape’) by analyzing metagenomes of plankton communities sampled across oceans during the Tara Oceans expedition, in light of environmental data and ocean current transport. Using a consistent approach across organismal sizes that provides unprecedented resolution to measure changes in genomic composition between communities, we report a pan-ocean, size-dependent plankton biogeography overlying regional heterogeneity. We found robust evidence for a basin-scale impact of transport by ocean currents on plankton biogeography, and on a characteristic timescale of community dynamics going beyond simple seasonality or life history transitions of plankton.
ABSTRACT Aim We aimed to enhance our understanding of the distribution of mesopelagic mesozooplankton (MM) using species distribution models, assess the performance of various modelling techniques, identify key environmental predictors for MM distribution and compute their habitat suitability indices. Location Our study focused on the mesopelagic zone globally, with data analysed from different oceans. Taxon Our focus was primarily on mesopelagic mesozooplankton, gathering data on 861 different species from the Mesopelagic Mesozooplankton and Micronekton (MMM) Database. Methods We used an ensemble of species distribution models, applying 10 different modelling algorithms and three multi‐model ensemble approaches. We explored two important factors that can affect model performance: subsampling and the choice of background points. We also estimated the relative importance of various environmental conditions such as mixed layer depth, temperature, salinity, net primary productivity, euphotic zone depth and dissolved nitrate concentration on the distribution of these species. Results Euphotic zone depth, salinity and dissolved nitrate concentration were identified as the most important variables for explaining the distribution of mesopelagic mesozooplankton. The ensemble modelling results were robust in areas with abundant observational records, but high uncertainty was observed in data‐limited regions. We found a patchy habitat suitability map for zooplankton when modelled within their native range, largely due to uneven sampling. Unrestricted range models yielded smoother patterns but could inaccurately project species in areas where they do not occur. Main Conclusions Our study highlights the need for increased sampling effort in data‐limited regions to improve the accuracy of mesopelagic species distribution models. Despite some inaccuracies, unrestricted range models, assuming ecological equivalence (where different species occupying a similar ecological niche in different geographical regions or different ecosystems exhibit similar adaptations and behaviours), provide a reasonable comparison for habitat suitability maps and model performance. It also confirms the significant impact of certain environmental conditions on mesozooplankton distribution.
Ocean warming is driving significant changes in the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems, shifting species' biogeography and phenology, changing body size and biomass and altering the trophodynamics of the system. Particularly, extreme temperature events such as marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been increasing in intensity, duration and frequency. MHWs are causing large-scale impacts on marine ecosystems, such as coral bleaching, mass mortality of seagrass meadows and declines in fish stocks and other marine organisms in recent decades. In this study, we developed and applied a dynamic version of the EcoTroph trophodynamic modelling approach to study the cascading effects of individual MHW on marine ecosystem functioning. We simulated theoretical user-controlled ecosystems and explored the consequences of various assumptions of marine species mortality along the food web, associated with different MHW intensities. We show that an MHW can lead to a significant biomass reduction of all consumers, with the severity of the declines being dependent on species trophic levels (TLs) and biomes, in addition to the characteristics of MHWs. Biomass of higher TLs declines more than lower TLs under an MHW, leading to changes in ecosystem structure. While tropical ecosystems are projected to be sensitive to low-intensity MHWs, polar and temperate ecosystems are expected to be impacted by more intense MHWs. The estimated time to recover from MHW impacts is twice as long for polar ecosystems and one-third longer for temperate biomes compared with tropical biomes. This study highlights the importance of considering extreme weather events in assessing the effects of climate change on the structures and functions of marine ecosystems.
