Conventional Beliefs and Counterintuitive Realities
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Enrico L. Quarantelli Conventional Beliefs and Counterintuitive Realities THIS PAPER DISCUSSES MAJOR MYTHS AND WIDELY HELD INCORRECT beliefs about individual and group behaviors in disaster contexts. Why can we categorize such views as invalid? Because now there has been m ore than half a century o f systematic social science studies (and an earlier half century of less well known scattered works) that have estab lished the actual param eters of the behavior of individuals and groups in natural and technological disaster situations (for recent summaries of the extensive research literature, see Lindell, Peny, and Prater, 2006; N ational Research Council, 2006; and Rodriguez, Q uarantelli, and Dynes, 2006). All is not known, and serious gaps rem ain in knowledge about im portant topics, but we are at this tim e far beyond just educated guesses on m any dim ensions of the relevant behaviors. Our focus is on six different behavioral aspects ofdisasters,prim ar ily occurring around the im pact tim e period of such crises. Stated in just a few words, we look at panic flight and at antisocial looting behav ior, supposed passivity in emergencies, role conflict and abandonment, severe m ental health consequences, and the locus of w hatever prob lems surface. We present w hat is often assumed, believed, or stated on these m atters—at least in popular discourse and to a varying extent in policy, planning, and operational circles—as over against w hat study and research has found. The concept of "m yths" was coined in the early 1950s by research ers who were studying the natural and technological "disasters" that social research Vol 75 : No 3 : Fall 2008 873 were taking place in Am erican society at that time. These research ers were never under any illusion th at these were the only kinds of collective crises th at societies could suffer. This idea was reinforced in the early 1960s w hen there were m any urban and university riots that "disaster" researchers studied even as they recognized they were along some lines qualitatively different from the earlier natural and technological disasters looked at in the field. To some researchers these became known as "conflict crises." In the decades that followed, addi tional notions about mega-disasters/catastrophes, as well as even newer kinds of crises, also qualitatively different, crept into the literature. W ithout going into the uneven historical evolution of the think ing about different kinds or types, we need here to identify distinc tive aspects of the four kinds of collective crises ju st noted. This is because the idea of the m yths is not equally applicable across the board. Particularly im portant is th at the idea makes sense for disasters but needs qualification for catastrophes. A few researchers have argued for decades that there are disasters and there are catastrophes. This is not simply substituting or replacing one word w ith another to try to m aintain the idea of disaster myths, as has been incorrectly implied (Handmer, 2007, for example). Rather, it involves an attem pt to differentiate m ajor differences between one kind of social crisis and another as the result of the im pact of a destruc tive natural or technological agent (see Quarantelli, 2005a). The charac teristics of a catastrophe in ideal-type term s are the following. In a space-time framework, a catastrophe occurs when 1) w ithin a relatively short time period, 2) a large but not necessarily fully contiguous area with multiple land uses and diverse communities, is 3) perceived as being subjected to veiy m ajor threats to life and property, thus 4) requir ing immediate responses to start restoring a routine social order. This kind of social occasion results in: ►m ost eveiyday com m unity functions and social institutions being sharply and concurrently interrupted (in contrast to this not happening in a disaster); 874 social research ►m any organizations, including those that are emergency oriented, either cease operating or do so in a m arkedly reduced m anner (in contrast to a disaster w here few organizations in a com m unity dete riorate to such a degree); ►m any local com m...Keywords:
Counterintuitive
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Hubris
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For decades, developmental psychologists and educators have emphasized that learning about counterintuitive phenomena may be a critical driving force for cognitive development. Thus far, little is known about the specific content that children seek to enrich their knowledge. Using a novel book-choice paradigm, we directly examine children’s preference to engage with media that contains more mundane vs. more counterintuitive content. Children ranging from 3- to 8-years (N = 174), from the U.S. and Canada, were presented with pairs of books about animals. The two books in each pair were visually identical aside from their printed title. One book in each pair was described as presenting a fact that (according to validation data on children’s and adults’ beliefs in these facts) was relatively intuitive, and the other book was described as presenting a fact that was relatively counterintuitive. The youngest participants (3–4 years) demonstrated no preference in selecting books with intuitive vs. counterintuitive facts about animals, whereas older children (5-years onward) demonstrated an increasing preference for counterintuitive content. Combined with validation data on children’s and adults’ intuitions about the focal facts, these data suggest that children’s preference to seek information that adults deem counterintuitive (at least in the domain of biology) increases with age as a function of changes in the strength of children’s intuitions about what is possible.
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AbstractSome of the most intriguing science museum exhibits start with a counterintuitive outcome: a result that runs counter to visitors' expectations. Although counterintuitive events often succeed in captivating visitors, they rarely lead to visitor-driven inquiry. I argue that this is primarily due to two factors. First, for the counterintuitive effect to be presented reliably and repeatedly, the visitor's interaction must be limited to a narrow set of options. Without multiple options for visitors to explore, extended inquiry is nearly impossible. Second, counterintuitive outcomes beg the question "why did the outcome occur?". Answering such a "why" question through experimentation alone is too challenging for most visitors; they either leave the exhibit or turn to an explanatory label. In either case, the potential for inquiry is unrealized. Three strategies that both motivate visitor inquiry and allow for open-ended exhibit designs are presented: revealing beautiful aesthetics, supporting creativity, and providing engaging representations.
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Archaeological looting is a recognised global problem, particularly in areas experiencing conflict. Recent research has demonstrated that archaeological looting attempts and armed conflict are temporally related (see Fabiani, 2018); however, a temporal relationship is not sufficient alone to establish a baseline understanding of which sites are most likely looted. Events may appear temporally related that occur at opposite ends of a country. As such, it is important to also look quantitatively at the spatial relationship between these two phenomena. Few studies have examined archaeological looting in relation to contextual factors (e.g., conflict) spatially due to the lack of available data on looting attempts. This study uses newly collected data on archaeological looting attempts from 3,199 satellite images from multiple sources to investigate the spatial relationship between archaeological looting and armed conflict in Lower Egypt from 2015 to 2017. These data allow for a more systematic approach to identifying what, if any, spatial relationship exists between looting attempts and conflict. The results suggest that though there is a spatial relationship between archaeological looting and conflict, it varies by type of conflict, and situational opportunity appears to play a key role in determining looting.
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This article presents a new initiative in combating looting from the air, building on previous work in Iraq and Jordan. Looted sites in the Virú Valley, Peru, are visible as pit clusters on dated versions of Google Earth. Compare these with earlier air photographs and Gordon Willey's famous survey of the 1940s, and we have a dated chronicle of looting events. This makes it possible to demonstrate that modern looting is certainly taking place and linked to an upsurge in the antiquities trade. As well as being a new instrument for managing heritage, the author shows that the looting survey offers an important research dividend: the location of cemeteries not previously systematically documented, with potential for more thorough investigation even of already looted areas.
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Management scholars and colleagues in related fields have consistently identified CEO hubris as a significant factor in acquisitions. However, little attention has been devoted to target-CEO hubris as researchers have focused predominantly on acquiring CEOs. Given that research shows that target CEOs and their attributes are critical for acquisition outcomes, a more complete understanding of the role of executive hubris in acquisitions requires considering both acquirer and target sides. Building on prior works on hubris and related psychology research, this paper explores what the joint effects of acquirer and target CEO hubris might be for specific acquisition outcomes. It explains that the association between acquirer-CEO hubris and acquisition deal completion would be positive only when target-CEO hubris is low. When target-CEO hubris is high, that relationship would more likely be negative. The paper further clarifies that the positive relationship between acquirer-CEO hubris and acquisition premium will be stronger when target-CEO hubris is high. Moreover, it argues that if a pair of more hubristic acquirer and target CEOs remain with a merged firm, the joint effect of their hubris on firm performance would more likely be positive. Overall, the paper has important implications for research on executive characteristics more broadly.
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The recent restitution of antiquities from several major American museums and the trial in Italy of former Getty antiquities curator Marion True and art dealer Robert Hecht have focused pubkc attention on the Ulegal trade in looted antiquities to an extent rarely seen in the past.1 The looting of the Iraq Museum in Baghdad in April 2003 and the even more disastrous large-scale looting of archaeological sites in southern Iraq since the beginning of the current Gulf War have brought the devastating effects of the international market in looted antiquities into even starker rekef.2 The looting of archaeological sites and the dismemberment of ancient monuments are problems that afflict countries as wealthy as the United States and the United Kingdom and as poor as Mak and Bokvia. Recent revelations concerning the functioning of the art market and the acquisition of antiquities with unknown origins now demonstrate that the looting of archaeological sites is a weU-organized big business motivated primarUy by profit. The looting of archaeological sites creates negative externakties that harm society. Because the legal regime aims to eliminate societal harms, the law should force the actor to internakze the costs3 and thereby discourage the negative activity. In this Artide, the term indicates any harmful effect imposed on an individual or on society as a whole. The loss of cultural is a cost paid by society. In the field of cultural heritage law, value usually indicates the intangible worth and significance of original contexts and rarely connotes monetary value. This Article addresses the unique aspects of the trade in antiquities, that is, archaeological objects that have, over time, been buried in the ground with an associated assemblage of other artifacts, architectural remains, and natural features. Because of its knk to the looting of sites, the trade in undocumented antiquities raises legal, ethical, and societal concerns distinguishing it from the trade in other forms of artwork. In this Article, I wiU discuss three components. First, I wiU examine the harms that the looting of archaeological sites imposes on society. Second, I wUl discuss the responses to the problem, particularly in terms of the law that attempts to regulate this conduct, and some of the characteristics of the current legal regime and of the market in antiquities that prevent the law from achieving its fuk potential for deterrence. Third, this Article wiU examine and propose solutions to discourage site looting and encourage preservation of the remains of the past for the benefit of the future. I. UNDERSTANDING THE PAST There are several detrimental consequences of looting. First, the looting of archaeological sites imposes negative externakties on society by destroying our abikty to fuky understand and reconstruct the past. Humans have long been interested in the material remains of past cultures, and they have often coUected artifacts as poktical symbols of domination5 or as a means of enjoying past artistic accompkshments. The manner in which artifacts are recovered from the ground only became important after the development of archaeology as a science, with examples of stratigraphie excavation and recording known as early as the seventeenth century. Borrowing in large measure from the emerging fields of Darwinian evolutionary biology and paleontology that rely on the stratigraphie placement of fossUs to reconstruct the chronological evolution of kfe forms, a modern understanding of the role of stratigraphie excavation as key to understanding human cultural evolution developed by the late eighteenth century.6 Archaeology became a truly interdiscipknary field in the middle and late twentieth century with the adoption of scientific techniques, such as radiocarbon and thermoluminescence dating7 and more sophisticated methods, in conjunction with the use of knguistic, phkological, art historical, and anthropological analyses to understand the past. …
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The current study examined how contextual information, defined as information represented at the level of the situation model, influenced memory for minimally and maximally counterintuitive stories. The first two experiments investigated whether the presence of explicit instructions to make sense of “strange information” in the stories influenced memory for maximally counterintuitive stories. Although no such effect was observed, post hoc analyses indicated that maximally counterintuitive stories that support a global inference that integrates the counterintuitive ideas are better recalled compared to stories that do not support such an inference. A third experiment was conducted to directly test the “global-inference” hypothesis. The results from the three experiments highlight the significant role of inferential processing in the integration of counterintuitive ideas, especially for maximally counterintuitive studies.
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Executive Overview Throughout history, hubris has been cited as a common reason for leadership failure. One of the more famous examples of hubris at work was Napoleon's Russian campaign of 1812, in which he lost his army and empire. The authors examine the consequences of both Napoleon's hubris and the hubris of contemporary business executives. Among the managerial behaviors that may reflect hubris are making unsound and over-priced corporate acquisitions, pursuing growth for its own sake, and knowingly violating the standards of acceptable conduct. Using historical material on Napoleon as well as contemporary business examples, we examine the causes of hubris and specific leader behaviors that are likely to result. Guidelines for reducing the incidence of hubris are suggested.
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Existing concepts can be a major barrier to learning new counterintuitive concepts that contradict pre-existing experience-based beliefs or misleading perceptual cues. When reasoning about counterintuitive concepts, inhibitory control is thought to enable the suppression of incorrect concepts. This study investigated the association between inhibitory control and counterintuitive science and maths reasoning in adolescents (N = 90, 11-15 years). Both response and semantic inhibition were associated with counterintuitive science and maths reasoning, when controlling for age, general cognitive ability, and performance in control science and maths trials. Better response inhibition was associated with longer reaction times in counterintuitive trials, while better semantic inhibition was associated with higher accuracy in counterintuitive trials. This novel finding suggests that different aspects of inhibitory control may offer unique contributions to counterintuitive reasoning during adolescence and provides further support for the hypothesis that inhibitory control plays a role in science and maths reasoning.
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As hubris is understood today, primarily as a form of arrogance, it seems bizarre that it would be criminalized, and especially odd that hubris was seen as one of the prime crimes to be prosecuted.
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