Global, regional, and national burden of heatwave-related mortality from 1990 to 2019: A three-stage modelling study
Qi ZhaoShanshan LiTingting YeYao WuAntonio GasparriniShilu TongAleš UrbanAna María Vicedo-CabreraAurelio Tobı́asBen ArmstrongDominic RoyéÉric LavigneFrancesca de’DonatoFrancesco SeraHaidong KanJoel SchwartzMathilde PascalNiilo RytiPatrick GoodmanPaulo Hilário Nascimento SaldivaMichelle L. BellYuming Guo
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Background The regional disparity of heatwave-related mortality over a long period has not been sufficiently assessed across the globe, impeding the localisation of adaptation planning and risk management towards climate change. We quantified the global mortality burden associated with heatwaves at a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° and the temporal change from 1990 to 2019. Methods and findings We collected data on daily deaths and temperature from 750 locations of 43 countries or regions, and 5 meta-predictors in 0.5°×0.5° resolution across the world. Heatwaves were defined as location-specific daily mean temperature ≥95th percentiles of year-round temperature range with duration ≥2 days. We first estimated the location-specific heatwave-mortality association. Secondly, a multivariate meta-regression was fitted between location-specific associations and 5 meta-predictors, which was in the third stage used with grid cell-specific meta-predictors to predict grid cell-specific association. Heatwave-related excess deaths were calculated for each grid and aggregated. During 1990 to 2019, 0.94% (95% CI: 0.68–1.19) of deaths [i.e., 153,078 cases (95% eCI: 109,950–194,227)] per warm season were estimated to be from heatwaves, accounting for 236 (95% eCI: 170–300) deaths per 10 million residents. The ratio between heatwave-related excess deaths and all premature deaths per warm season remained relatively unchanged over the 30 years, while the number of heatwave-related excess deaths per 10 million residents per warm season declined by 7.2% per decade in comparison to the 30-year average. Locations with the highest heatwave-related death ratio and rate were in Southern and Eastern Europe or areas had polar and alpine climates, and/or their residents had high incomes. The temporal change of heatwave-related mortality burden showed geographic disparities, such that locations with tropical climate or low incomes were observed with the greatest decline. The main limitation of this study was the lack of data from certain regions, e.g., Arabian Peninsula and South Asia. Conclusions Heatwaves were associated with substantial mortality burden that varied spatiotemporally over the globe in the past 30 years. The findings indicate the potential benefit of governmental actions to enhance health sector adaptation and resilience, accounting for inequalities across communities.Cite
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Genentech is partnering with the German cancer company Affimed to develop immunotherapies for multiple kinds of solid and blood cancers. Affimed is developing therapies that engage natural killer cells of the innate immune system to help direct them to attack cancer cells. Genentech will pay Affimed $96 million up front and up to $5 billion more in potential payments.
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In metrology, one is usually comparing what indicates an instrument versus what it should be indicated by a reference pattern, resulting in the so called measurement errors. Most errors follow a normal distribution. If one wants to have some confidence about how small is such an error, the traditional confidence intervals for the unknown parameters are computed. This article illustrates, via simulation, the effectiveness of three intervals for estimating the 100p-th percentile in a normal distribution, namely, the Traditional (T), the Normal Asymptotic (NA), and the Lawless (LA) intervals. Various samples of different sizes are drawn from a zero mean normal distribution, which resembles the measurement error distributions. For each one of them the 95% confidence interval is estimated by using the three approaches. From the simulation, it is possible to conclude that T and LA intervals are better than NA as they produce shorter length and wider coverage.
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