[Precipitation variation reconstructed based on tree-ring width data for the past 399 years in the eastern Yinshan Mountains, China].
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Based on the tree-ring increment cores of Pinus tabuliformis collected from the eastern Yinshan Mountains, the tree-ring width chronology was developed. The correlation coefficients were calculated between the chronology and monthly mean temperature and monthly precipitation during the instrumental period of AD 1952-2007. The results showed that the highest correlation was found between the total precipitation from September of previous year to June of current year and the chronology (r=0.73, n=56, P<0.01). Based on the correlation, the September of previous year to June of current year total precipitation variation was reconstructed in the eastern Yin-shan Mountains during the past 399 years (AD 1619-2017). The reconstruction explained 54.9% of the variation in the total precipitation from September of previous year to June of current year for the calibration period (AD 1952-2007). Both the 'leave-one-out' cross validation and split-period validation showed that the model was relatively robust, with sufficient skills of estimation and high reliability. At the decadal scale, there were four wet periods (AD 1619-1663, AD 1705-1711, AD 1945-1963, and AD 1979-2017)) and four dry periods (AD 1734-1767, AD 1786-1814, AD 1839-1867, and AD 1888-1942) in the past 399 years. Among those periods, the AD 1979-2017 was the wettest period, and AD 1888-1942 was the longest dry duration with the driest period at the late 1920s. Results of power spectral analysis revealed cyclic fluctuations of precipitation series on 2-7 years and 125 years. In addition, the comparison with other reconstructions and spatial correlation analysis indicated that the reconstructed precipitation series well represented regional scale precipitation variation.基于阴山东部油松树轮样芯,建立采样区域树轮宽度年表,并计算器测时期(AD 1952—2007)月均温和月降水量与树轮宽度年表的相关系数。结果表明: 树轮宽度年表与上一年9月至当年6月降水量变化的相关性最高(r=0.73,n=56,P<0.01),基于此重建了阴山东部过去399年(AD 1619—2017)上一年9月至当年6月的降水量变化历史。该重建解释了器测时期上一年9月至当年6月降水量54.9%的方差,经“留一法”交叉验证和分段独立检验证明,重建方程稳定可靠。在年代际尺度上,过去399年存在4个湿润时期(AD 1619—1663、AD 1705—1711、AD 1945—1963和AD 1979—2017)和4个干旱时期(AD 1734—1767、AD 1786—1814、AD 1839—1867和AD 1888—1942)。其中,AD 1979—2017是最湿润的时期,而AD 1888—1942是干旱持续最长的时段,包含最干旱时期1920s晚期。功率谱分析显示,过去399年该区降水具有2～7年和125年准周期变化。通过与邻近区域重建对比及空间相关分析表明,本降水重建序列可以较好地代表研究区域的降水变化。.Keywords:
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Abstract Detecting long-term changes in precipitation extremes over monsoon regions remains challenging due to large observational uncertainty, high internal variability at the regional scale, and climate models’ deficiency in simulating monsoon physics. This is particularly true for Eastern China, as illustrated by limited yet controversial detection results for daily scale precipitation extremes and the lack of detection analysis on hourly scale extremes there. Relying on high-quality gauge observations, two complementary techniques are used to detect the footprint of anthropogenic forcings in observed changes in both hourly and daily scale precipitation extremes across Eastern China. Results show that, scaled with global-mean surface temperature during 1970–2017, the regional-scale intensification nearly doubles the Clausius–Clapeyron rate (C-C; ~6.5% °C −1 ) for the wettest 10 h in the period and almost triples the C-C rate for the top 10 heaviest daily precipitation extremes. The intensification at both time scales, as well as the resulting increase in frequency, is discernibly stronger and more widespread than expected due to random internal variability. This not only lends supports to the model-based detection of forced trends for daily scale precipitation extremes, but it also suggests that anthropogenic warming has already be intensifying hourly scale precipitation extremes in this monsoon region. The magnitude and detectability of observed changes arise primarily from systematic intensification of non-tropical-cyclone-related precipitation extremes in response to the past warming.
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Bigcone spruce is a conifer endemic to southern California. Two new tree-ring chronologies were developed utilizing individuals of this species growing at two sites in the San Rafael mountains of Santa Barbara County. Climate growth response functions were determined for these chronologies and for an existing bigcone spruce chronology from the San Bernardino mountains farther east. Bigcone spruce is particularly well suited for dendrochronological analysis given its longevity (800 years) and the strong relationship between growth and precipitation. Growth in the current year depends strongly on growth in the previous two years (22-46% of total chronology variance). After removing the effects of prior growth, response functions based on precipitation alone account for 43-51% of chronology variance, while those based on precipitation and temperature explain 52-76% of total variance. Response functions indicate a strong positive relationship between growth and winter and spring precipitation, and a negative relationship with early spring and early summer temperatures. The response functions for big-cone spruce are distinctive from those published for other western conifers, and are consistent with the unique characteristics of the mediterranean climatic regime.
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Abstract There is great interest in the climatic variability of Baja California and the Sea of Cortes, but long‐term information is limited because instrumental climate records begin in the 1940s or 1960s. The first tree‐ring chronology of Pinus lagunae was developed from the southern part of the Baja California Peninsula and the chronology is used to reconstruct the history of precipitation variations. A September–July precipitation reconstruction is developed for the period AD 1862–1996 ( R =0.71, p <0.0001, n =56, cross‐validation=0.68). This reconstruction is used to assess precipitation variability over the past two centuries, including the relationship with ENSO events. The reconstructed precipitation series indicates a long drought period from 1939 to 1958. It also shows that 1983, one of the strongest El Niño events of the 20th century, is the wettest year. El Niño events during the 20th century are associated with above‐normal precipitation, whereas La Niña events are characterized by below‐normal precipitation. Four of the most extreme wet years occurred in association with these warm events (1905, 1912, 1919 and 1983). Seventy‐one percent of La Niña events are characterized by below‐normal precipitation. Sixty‐two percent of El Niño events are characterized by above‐normal precipitation. Tree‐ring growth of P. lagunae is most strongly correlated with winter precipitation in Sonora, Sinaloa and southern Baja California Sur. Precipitation data from meteorological stations in northern Baja California do not correlate well with the tree‐ring chronology because this zone has a Mediterranean climate, which differs from the rest of northwest Mexico. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society
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Xiagansate is located in the lower tree line of the mountainous area of the Urumqi River in the middle of Tianshan Mountain. Tree ring samples of spruce ( Picca schrenkinna var. tianschanica ) was collected from the lower forest zone. The ring width chronology of Xiagansate shows high mean sensitivity and high standard deviation which implied that it may contain much information of precipitation in such a semiarid region. The relationship between tree ring chronology and climatic factors was studied by correlation analysis. The ring width chronology shows the best relationship with the precipitation of May. Further study shows that the precipitation of the last ten day of May has the best relationship with the chronology. The result has distinct physiological significance. The radial growth of spruce was mainly occurred from May to August, and half of the ring width may be formed from May to June. The last ten day of May is the key period of radial growth and also the most active period. The precipitation of the last ten day of May has high deviation also correspond with the high mean sensitivity of the ring width chronology, which indicates the propriety of the relationship. The 326 years' precipitation of the last ten day of May was reconstructed from the ring width chronology and the low frequency variations of the reconstructed series was analyzed. There were 8 fully dry wet periods in the past 326 years, the driest period occurred from 1701 to 1722 and the wettest period occurred from 1961 to 1981. The frequency study shows that the reconstructed series has 64a, 32a, 22a, 14a, 5a and 11a cycles, some of which have relations with the solar activity such as the 11a sunspot cycle and the 22a Hale cycle. \; The method of variation analysis was used to predict the dry wet conditions of future years. The prediction will be very helpful for the yield predict and the planning of cropping system of winter wheat in North Xinjiang.
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A 1 835 a tree ring chronologies has been established based on tree ring samples from Dulan region, Qinghai. Correlation function, Response function and response surface analysis were utilized to study relationship between chronology and climatic elements. The results showed that trees studied were mainly affected by climatic elements. 60% and above percent of growth variance can be accounted for by monthly mean air temperature and monthly to total precipitation, and the response to temperature is stronger than to precipitation. According to the relation of chronology and climatic elements, September~December mean temperature of Dulan region were reconstructed year by year. Using the data of reconstruction, the authors discuss the change of climate in Dulan area during last 2 ka, in particular mainly climatic events such as the Medieval warm period, the little ice age and getting warm of the last century, and make comparison between studies area and northern hemisphere.
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Little ice age
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Abstract Evaluation of Chinese precipitation extremes is conducted based on large ensemble projections of the present climate and 4-K-warmer climates derived from a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model. The model reproduced the overall trend and magnitude of total precipitation and extreme precipitation events for China reasonably well, revealing that this dataset can represent localized precipitation extremes. Precipitation extremes are more frequent and more severe in future projections under 4-K-warmer climates than in the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Our results show that using a large-ensemble simulation can improve the ability to estimate with high precision both the precipitation mean and the precipitation extremes compared with small numbers of simulations, and the averaged maximum yearly precipitation will be likely to increase by approximately 18% under a +4-K future in southern China compared with the past. Finally, uncertainty evaluation in future precipitation projections indicates that the component caused by the difference in six ΔSST patterns is more important in southern China compared with the component due to the atmospheric internal variability. All these results could provide valuable insights in simulating and predicting precipitation extremes in China.
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Tree-ring cores are sampled at lower and upper forest border of pure forests of Pinus tabulaeformis in Luoshan Mountains of Ningxia.The authors develop the tree-ring width index standard chronologies and analyze the statistical characters of two sites' chronologies.After anglicizing the response relationship between tree-ring width and precipitation,temperature and moisture index(P/T),it is found out that the standard chronologies of two sites are all significantly related to March,May,spring and the annual precipitation and July temperature.There is a significant relation between the tree-ring width and the prior September precipitation,autumn precipitation and summer temperature at lower forest border.Based on the size of the correlation coefficient and the number of significant factors,it is pointed out that the tree-ring width index standard chronology at lower forest border is relatively sensitive to the precipitation and temperature than that at upper forest border.Furthermore the tree-ring width trends are all positively correlative with the humid index,and the correlation coefficient between the tree-ring width standard chronology at upper forest border and March to August moisture index reaches 99% level.The standard chronology at upper forest border is relatively sensitive to the combination of water and heat.
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Siberian larch ( Larix sibirica ) trees were studied in a drought-stressed, lowe-levation Taiga forest in the Altay Mountains for their potential to be used for reconstructing precipitation. A climate/growth analysis provided evidence that the tree-ring widths were strongly determined by the climatic conditions from May to July, positively by precipitation and negatively by temperature. Nevertheless, the resulting regional tree-ring chronology of Siberian larch offers only a limited possibility to perform reliable reconstructions of precipitation as only 30.8% of the total variation of the actual April–July precipitation was explainable. Drought events reflected by the chronology were compared with historical records and other tree-ring derived climate reconstructions, showing some common events of climate extremes over much of Central Asia. This new Siberian larch chronology and an earlier maximum latewood density (MXD) chronology from the neighboring region reveal that the local climate is mainly characterized by cold/wet and warm/dry situations over the past 251 years. This study demonstrates that the use of both tree-ring width and MXD data may increase information of past climate variability in the Altay mountain region.
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In this study 246 tree cores were obtained from 109 Larix sibirica trees at four sites( named as AKL,TEA,TZB and BLS) at the upper treeline in the Altay Mountains,northwest China. The correlation coefficients between the tree-ring width chronologies and climate signals revealed that the correlation coefficient between the BLS and TEA chronologies was the highest( R = 0. 411,P 0. 01). The synchronization of the high-frequency domain was higher than that of the low-frequency domain in the four standardized tree-ring width chronologies. The climate response of the tree-ring width chronologies from the upper treeline in the Altay Mountains revealed that the main factor affecting the growth of tree rings from the AKL chronology in the northwest Altay Mountain was temperature; that in the TEA and TZB chronologies from the central Altay Mountain was precipitation,and then temperature; and that in the BLS chronology from the southeast Altay Mountain was precipitation. From the northwest to the southeast of the Altay Mountains,the effect of temperature on the growth of tree rings at the upper treeline was gradually decreased,but that of precipitation was gradually increased.
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