Contagion of coronavirus disease—the first family cluster of Pakistan: a case series
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Coronavirus Disease has resulted in public health crisis all over the world. We describe the case series of a family, who travelled together to a mass gathering in Iraq, toured Syria, Lebanon, and Doha and returned to Karachi. The data describes the demographic and clinical features of these six members. There were three males and three females. One developed severe disease and died. Incubation period was between 8-14 days. Four patients were symptomatic, had diabetes mellitus and hypertension; and presented with fever. They also had bilateral airspace opacifications on chest X-ray. Our study describes familial clustering of SARS-CoV-2 and its person-to-person transmission.Keywords:
Incubation period
Mass gathering
Pandemic
Coronavirus
Abstract The incubation period is the time interval between exposure to a disease‐causing agent and the onset of symptomatic disease. For example, the incubation period of an infectious disease refers to the time interval between infection or exposure to a viral or bacterial agent and the onset of symptomatic (clinical) disease. The incubation period is also called the clinical latency period. The focus of this article is on modeling and estimating the incubation period of infectious diseases. However, some of the ideas may also be applicable to the incubation period of noninfectious disease, for example, the incubation period of radiation‐induced cancer that refers to the time interval from radiation exposure to cancer diagnosis. Alternative designs for the estimation of an incubation period are reviewed, and methods to synthesize studies on incubation periods are mentioned.
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What constitutes a mass gathering is challenging to define. Some sources specify any gathering to be an mass gathering when more than 1000 individuals attend, whereas others require the attendance of as many as 25,000 people to qualify. Irrespective of the definition, mass gatherings represent large numbers of people attending an event that is focused at specific sites for a finite time. Ensuring a safe environment and provision of health care during mass gatherings can be equally challenging. Among all mass gatherings, the public health issues, associated with the Hajj are clearly the best reported—probably because of its international or even intercontinental implications in terms of the spread of infectious disease. Hajj pilgrimage, which takes place in and around the city of Mecca occurs yearly over 5 days during the final month of the Islamic calendar, attracts 2–3 million visitors, and is the largest annual recurring religious mass gathering in the world. Mass gatherings pose many challenges, such as crowd management, security, and emergency preparedness. Stampedes and crush injuries are common, the result of inevitable crowding. Outdoor events are associated with complications of exposure, dehydration, sunburn, and heat exhaustion. Other health hazards arise from lack of food hygiene, inadequate waste management, and poor sanitation. Violence is unpredictable and difficult to mitigate whether the mass gathering is a political rally or a sporting competition. With few exceptions, however, the rates of morbidity and mortality resulting from these hazards are rarely increased outside the event. The potential for the transmission of highly infectious diseases like typhoid, cholera, viral hemorrhagic fevers, invasive meningococcal meningitis, and influenza during mass gathering events is enormous; since almost 90% of the pilgrims travel by air, the rapid dispersion of diseases around the globe is a distinct and deadly possibility. Returnees may assimilate back into their communities before the incubation period is over, unknowingly spreading microbes to their immediate household contacts and eventually to others. Global mass gatherings, can lead to global hazards. Mitigation of risks requires expertise outside the specialty of acute care medicine, event planning, and venue engineering.
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Most mass gathering events have been suspended due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, with vaccination rollout, whether and how to organize some of these mass gathering events arises as part of the pandemic recovery discussions, and this calls for decision support tools. The Hajj, one of the world's largest religious gatherings, was substantively scaled down in 2020 and 2021 and it is still unclear how it will take place in 2022 and subsequent years. Simulating disease transmission dynamics during the Hajj season under different conditions can provide some insights for better decision-making. Most disease risk assessment models require data on the number and nature of possible close contacts between individuals.We sought to use integrated agent-based modeling and discrete events simulation techniques to capture risky contacts among the pilgrims and assess different scenarios in one of the Hajj major sites, namely Masjid-Al-Haram.The simulation results showed that a plethora of risky contacts may occur during the rituals. Also, as the total number of pilgrims increases at each site, the number of risky contacts increases, and physical distancing measures may be challenging to maintain beyond a certain number of pilgrims in the site.This study presented a simulation tool that can be relevant for the risk assessment of a variety of (respiratory) infectious diseases, in addition to COVID-19 in the Hajj season. This tool can be expanded to include other contributing elements of disease transmission to quantify the risk of the mass gathering events.
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Abstract Background: Most mass gathering events have been suspended due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, with vaccination rollout, whether and how to organize some of these mass gathering events arises as part of the pandemic recovery discussions, and this calls for decision support tools. The Hajj, one of the world's largest religious gatherings, was substantively scaled down in 2020 and 2021 and it is still unclear how it will take place in 2022 and subsequent years. Simulating disease transmission dynamics during the Hajj season under different conditions can provide some insights for better decision-making. Most disease risk assessment models require data on the number and nature of possible close contacts between individuals. Methods: We sought to use integrated agent-based modeling and discrete events simulation techniques to capture risky contacts among the pilgrims and assess different scenarios in one of the Hajj major sites, namely Masjid-Al-Haram. Results: The simulation results showed that a plethora of risky contacts may occur during the rituals. Also, as the total number of pilgrims increases at each site, the number of risky contacts increases, and physical distancing measures may be challenging to maintain beyond a certain number of pilgrims in the site. Conclusions: This study presented a simulation tool that can be relevant for the risk assessment of a variety of (respiratory) infectious diseases, in addition to COVID-19 in the Hajj season. This tool can be expanded to include other contributing elements of disease transmission to quantify the risk of the mass gathering events.
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Abstract The incubation period is the time interval between exposure to a disease‐causing agent and the onset of symptomatic disease. For example, the incubation period of an infectious disease refers to the time interval between infection or exposure to a viral or bacterial agent and the onset of symptomatic (clinical) disease. The incubation period is also called the clinical latency period. The focus of this article is on modeling and estimating the incubation period of infectious diseases. However, some of the ideas may also be applicable to the incubation period of noninfectious disease, for example, the incubation period of radiation‐induced cancer that refers to the time interval from radiation exposure to cancer diagnosis. Alternative designs for the estimation of an incubation period are reviewed, and methods to synthesize studies on incubation periods are mentioned.
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This article aims to illustrate the essential changes caused by the Coronavirus pandemic in all fields of activity. The implemented measures imposed to prevent the transmission of the virus generated the alteration of the normal lifestyle for everybody. Unfortunately, there is not much chance of a 100% recovery of the world after the pandemic situation ends.
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Credible information on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus outbreak as well as background information about infectious diseases, epidemics, and pandemics. A work in progress that will be updated as more information on the coronavirus is shared by agencies working on containment, prevention, and treatment.
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У статті розглянуто структурно-композиційні особливості дискурсивного розгортання наративу “Coronavirus Pandemic” в електронному новинному дискурсі. Новинний дискурс, будучи здатним формувати сучасну інформаційну картину світу та образ подій, має потужний потенціал впливу на масову аудиторію через конструйовані ним наративи. Наратив трактується як історія з її тематичною єдністю, дійовими особами, тимчасовими й просторовими межами, канвою певних подій. Об’єктом дослідження послугував наратив “Coronavirus Pandemic” у формі його дискурсивного розгортання на порталі BBC News, а предметом – його архітектоніка. Новинний наратив у контексті електронного формату оприлюднення новин визначається як структурований та систематизований гіпертекст-розгортання певної історії про дії суб’єктів у їх причинно-наслідковій послідовності, що визначена наратором як актуальна для аудиторії, відкрита для її множинних інтерпретацій та резонує з її основними цінностями. Окреслено структуру та композиційні характеристики побудови наративу пандемії коронавірусу з огляду на наукові категорії сучасної наратології, а саме суперструктурну схему дискурсу новин, спосіб організації новинної інформації, точку фокалізації, комунікативність. Проведений наративний аналіз дискурсу новин “Coronavirus Pandemic” на матеріалі статей у відповідній рубриці на інформаційному порталі BBC News уможливив з’ясування панівного принципу організації інформації як мережевого. Проаналізовано відповідність наративу встановленим стандартам комунікативності як можливості для читацької аудиторії реагувати на новинні повідомлення порталу через аккаунт BBC News у різних соціальних мережах та гіпертекстуальності як інструменту поширення, популяризації досліджуваного наративу. Встановлено такі композиційні компоненти цього наративу за суперструктурною схемою дискурсу новин, запропонованою Т.А. ван Дейком, як «короткий зміст», «головна подія», «фон», «вербальні реакції». Доведено більшу ефективність змішаного типу точки фокалізації досліджуваного наративу як ставлення наратора до оповіданого порівняно з внутрішнім та зовнішнім типами.
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