Predictors of Survival among Male and Female Patients with Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma: A Random Survival Forest Analysis of Data from the 2000-2017 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program.
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Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a rare and aggressive malignancy with a dismal prognosis. We aimed to identify predictors of survival among male and female MPM patients in the United States.We identified MPM cases reported by 18 cancer registries in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (2000-2017). We applied a random survival forest (RSF) algorithm to identify and rank the importance of 10 variables at patient, cancer, and area level in predicting all-cause survival overall and by female and male subgroups.Approximately 91.4% (n = 11,160) of the MPM patients had died, with better survival among females than males (11.7% vs 7.8%). The median follow-up time was 7 months (interquartile range, 2-17 months). A majority of the patients were male (78.6%), non-Hispanic White (81.8%), and residing in metropolitan counties with a population greater than 1 million (63.7%). The top 3 factors for predicting overall MPM survival were age, histological type, and cancer-directed surgery status. Except for age, the relative ranking of covariates varied by the 3 sample groups. Stage ranked fifth in predicting female survival, while it was replaced by metastasis status for male and overall patients. Race/ethnicity was not a good predictor for survival among MPM patients overall or the male subgroup, but ranked sixth for predicting survival among females. Median household income was not a good predictor for survival among females.We demonstrated that RSF successfully identified predictors of MPM survival. RSF is a viable complement to the commonly used Cox proportional hazard model and a viable alternative, particularly when the proportional hazard assumption is unmet. RSF also identified differences between the sexes, which may help explain the sex differences in MPM survival rates.Keywords:
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Although survival rates are very useful for monitoring the effects of early cancer detection and treatment, at present there are only limited population-based estimates of long-term survival rates in Korea. Furthermore, published data are only available for 5-year survival; 10-year survival rates have hitherto not been reported. We therefore analysed data from the Korean National Cancer Incidence Database between 1993 and 2007 and followed through into 2008 to estimate long-term survival rates and trends at 5 and 10 years after diagnosis of all cancers combined. Further analysis was conducted on the 19 most common cancers in Korea. From 1993 to 2007, the 10-year relative survival rates (RSRs) for all cancer types combined were 36.3% and 56.4% in Korean men and women, respectively. The 10-year RSRs for all cancers combined improved from 29.5% and 50.5% during 1993-1998 to 39.2% and 58.9% during 1999-2007 in Korean men and women, respectively. From 1993 to 2007, the 5-year and 10-year RSRs thus improved in both sexes for the most common cancers. In the 75 years and older group, increases of the 5-year and 10-year RSR for all combined, and for most of the major cancers were lower than all other age groups. This study provides population-based estimates of long-term survival and confirms improvements of long-term survivals for all cancer sites and for most of the major cancer sites. Improvements of survival for young patients are more significant than for older patients. The results may help clinicians and patients assess long-term prognosis.
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Conditional survival (CS) provides important information on survival for a period of time after diagnosis. Currently, information on CS patterns of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is lacking. We aimed to analyze survival rate over time and estimate CS for NPC patients using a national population-based registry.Patients diagnosed with NPC between 1973 and 2007 with at least 5-year follow-up were identified from the Surveillance Epidemiology End Results registry. Traditional survival rates and crude CS estimateswere calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Risk-adjusted survival curves were plotted from the proportional hazards model using the correct group prognosis method.registry. Traditional survival rates and crude CS estimateswere calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Risk-adjusted survival curves were plotted from the proportional hazards model using the correct group prognosis method.For 7,713 patients analyzed, adjusted baseline 5-year overall survival improved significantly from 36.0% in patients diagnosed in 1973-1979, 41.7% in 1980-1989, 46.6% in 1990-1999, to 54.7% in 2000-2007 (p < 0.01). CS analysis demonstrated that for every additional year survived, adjusted probability of surviving the next 5 years increased from 66.7% (localized), 54.0% (regional), and 35.3% (distant) at the time of diagnosis, to 83.7% (localized), 75.0% (regional), and 62.2% (distant) for patients who had survived 5 years. Adjusted 5-year CS differed among age, sex, tumor histology, ethnicity, and stage subgroups initially, but converged with time.Treatment outcomes of NPC patients have greatly improved over the decades. Increases in CS become more prominent in patients with distant disease than in those with localized or regional disease as patients survive longer. CS provides more dynamic prognostic information for patients who have survived a period of time after diagnosis.
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The incidence of gastric cardia cancer (GCC) patients has been increasing, while the survival trends of GCC patients over time remains unclear. Thus, the aim of our study was to determine the survival trends of GCC patients over time using a population-based data in the United States.A total of 9044 surgically resected GCC patients during 1988 to 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were identified. The survival probabilities were calculated by Kaplan-Meier method and the different survival probabilities between groups were examined by log-rank test.The median overall survival time was 27 (interquartile range, 12 to 99) months, and the median disease-specific survival time was 32 (interquartile range, 13 to 320) months for GCC patients. There was a statistically significant increase in median overall survival time (17 to 46 mo; P<0.001) and disease-specific survival time (19 to 67 mo; P<0.001) from 1988 to 1997 to 2008 to 2015. More GCC patients were diagnosed at an early stage in recent years. Meanwhile, adequate lymph nodes examined (eLNs) were obtained in more GCC patients during surgery. Also, the proportion of GCC patients who received chemoradiotherapy increased significantly. Moreover, early diagnosis, adequate eLNs, and chemoradiotherapy were associated with mortality.The survival rates of surgically resected GCC patients had a significant improvement from 1988 to 1997 to 2008 to 2015 in the United States, which might relate to the early discovery of GCC, greater utilization of adequate eLNs, and chemoradiotherapy.
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population-based survival analyses are fundamental to assess the impact of public health interventions and new therapies in cancer control. This monograph updates previous reports on cancer patient survival in Italy up to the year 2007.we extracted from the Network of Italian Cancer Registries (AIRTUM) database over 1,490,000 records of tumours diagnosed during 1990-2007 and followed up to the end of 2008, including all multiple tumours. We used the Ederer II method to estimate relative survival (RS) for 29 different types of neoplasm. Five-year relative survival rates were analysed by gender and macroarea. Trends in 5-, 10- and 15-year RS were studied by gender over six 3-year diagnostic periods, from 1990 to 2007. Conditional 5-year RS was also computed by gender and macroarea. Hybrid approaches were applied to exploit the recent survival experiences of cases diagnosed up to 2007. Adjustment for age was performed using EUROCARE weights. Additional sections describe cancer patient survival in childhood and in elderly patients and provide a comparison of cancer patient survival rates in Italy with those of other countries.Standardized 5-year RS for all tumours but skin in 52% for men and 61% for women. Patient survival has improved for almost all types of cancer: from 1990 to 2007 5-year RS has increased by 15% for all cancers but skin; the exceptions are some cancers with poor prognosis, where patient survival has remained basically unchanged. In males, RS was usually lower than in females, but trend analysis shows that the gap is narrowing. We also report persisting lower RS in southern Italy: 5-year RS in the South is usually from 4% to 10% lower than in the North and Centre.this study provides valuable information for all stakeholders in cancer control, both in Italy and elsewhere. Increasing survival reflects improvements in various areas of cancer control. On the other hand, delayed diagnosis and suboptimal management are consistent with the reported differences in survival within the country.
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4048 Background: NCCN guidelines recommend assessment of =12 lymph nodes (LN) to improve accuracy in colorectal cancer (CRC) staging. Previous studies have used various cut-points to assess the relationship between the number of LN sampled and survival. The association between NCCN guideline-compliant nodal sampling and survival is assessed, while controlling for other risk factors. Methods: We selected 145,485 adult patients newly diagnosed with stage II or III from SEER during 1990–2003. Kaplan-Meier curves were compared using the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to determine the effect of sampling ≥ 12 LN on survival. Results: Median patient follow-up was 5.7 years. The table shows overall survival rates in CRC patients with < 12 versus =12 LN assessed: After adjusting for age, sex, tumor size and grade, sampling ≥ 12 LN was independently associated with improved survival. For patients with =12 versus <12 LN assessed, survival increased by 13% for stage IIa [HR=0.75; 95%CI 0.72–0.78; p< .001], 16% for stage IIb [HR=0.69; 95%CI 0.67- 0.71; p< .001], 12% for stage IIIb [HR=0.75; 95%CI 0.72–0.77], and 10% for stage IIIc [HR=0.85, 95%CI 0.81–0.89]. The association was not statistically significant for stage IIIa patients. Conclusion: Consistent with previous reports, this analysis found that optimal nodal sampling increased survival across stage II and III, specifically when ≥ 12 LN are sampled and when controlling for other risk factors. Furthermore, the results underscore the need for adhering to the NCCN guidelines. The lack of a statistically significant association in stage IIIa patients may be due to small cohort size. [Table: see text] [Table: see text]
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A new method of survival analysis, denoted period analysis, has recently been developed, which has been shown to provide more up-to-date estimates of long-term survival rates than traditional methods of survival analysis. We applied period analysis to data from the nationwide Finnish cancer registry to provide up-to-date estimates of 5-, 10-, 15- and 20-year relative survival rates (RSR) achieved by the end of the 20th century. For most forms of cancer, period estimates of long-term survival are much higher than corresponding traditional survival estimates which suggests that for these cancers there has been ongoing major progress in survival rates in recent years which so far has remained undisclosed by traditional methods of survival analysis. For example, period analysis reveals that 10 year RSR have come close to (or even exceed) 80% for cancer of the corpus uteri and melanoma, 75% for breast cancer, 70% for bladder cancer, 65% for cancer of the cervix uteri, and 55% for cancer of the colon and prostate. Period analysis further reveals that 20 year RSR have now come close to (or even exceed) 75% for endometrial cancer and melanoma, 60% for breast cancer and cervical cancer, 55% for colon cancer and bladder cancer, and 40%–50% for cancer of the rectum, the ovaries, kidneys and nervous system. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaign
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Persons newly diagnosed with pancreas cancer and who have survived a previous cancer are often excluded from clinical trials, despite limited evidence about their prognosis. We examined the association between previous cancer and overall survival.This US population-based cohort study included older adults (aged ≥66 years) diagnosed with pancreas cancer between 2005 and 2015 in the linked Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare data. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate stage-specific effects of previous cancer on overall survival, adjusting for sociodemographic, treatment, and tumor characteristics.Of 32,783 patients, 18.7% were previously diagnosed with another cancer. The most common previous cancers included prostate (29.0%), breast (18.9%), or colorectal (9.7%) cancer. More than half of previous cancers (53.9%) were diagnosed 5 or more years prior to pancreas cancer diagnosis or at an in situ or localized stage (47.8%). The proportions of patients surviving 1, 3, and 5 years after pancreas cancer were nearly identical for those with and without previous cancer. Median survival in months was as follows for those with and without previous cancer respectively: 7 versus 8 (Stage 0/I), 10 versus 10 (Stage II), 7 versus 7 (Stage III), and 3 versus 2 (Stage IV). Cox models indicated that patients with previous cancer had very similar or statistically equivalent survival to those with no previous cancer.Given nearly equivalent survival compared to those without previous cancer, cancer survivors newly diagnosed with pancreas cancer should be considered for inclusion in pancreas cancer clinical trials.
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Although we usually report 5‐year cancer survival using population‐based cancer registry data, nowadays many cancer patients survive longer and need to be followed‐up for more than 5 years. Long‐term cancer survival figures are scarce in Japan. Here we report 10‐year cancer survival and conditional survival using an established statistical approach. We received data on 1 387 489 cancer cases from six prefectural population‐based cancer registries in Japan, diagnosed between 1993 and 2009 and followed‐up for at least 5 years. We estimated the 10‐year relative survival of patients who were followed‐up between 2002 and 2006 using period analysis. Using this 10‐year survival, we also calculated the conditional 5‐year survival for cancer survivors who lived for some years after diagnosis. We reported 10‐year survival and conditional survival of 23 types of cancer for 15–99‐year‐old patients and four types of cancer for children (0–14 years old) and adolescent and young adults (15–29 years old) patients by sex. Variation in 10‐year cancer survival by site was wide, from 5% for pancreatic cancer to 95% for female thyroid cancer. Approximately 70–80% of children and adolescent and young adult cancer patients survived for more than 10 years. Conditional 5‐year survival for most cancer sites increased according to years, whereas those for liver cancer and multiple myeloma did not increase. We reported 10‐year cancer survival and conditional survival using population‐based cancer registries in Japan. It is important for patients and clinicians to report these relevant figures using population‐based data.
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Purpose In Korea, anal cancer is rare disease entity with specific clinical characteristics. Therefore, no survival analysis with a sufficient patient population has been performed. The aim of this study was to evaluate the characteristics of Korean anal cancer, focusing on the survival according to tumor histologies, sex, and a specific age group, using the nationwide cancer registry. Methods Using the Korea Central Cancer Registry, we analyzed a total of 2,552 cases from 1993 to 2010. We assessed the 5-year relative survival by using tumor histology. In addition, survival differences of Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) stage were analyzed for both sexes and for young-age cancer (younger than 40 years) and advanced-age cancer (older than 70 years). Results The 5-year relative survival among anal cancer patients increased from 38.9% for the period 1993-1995 to 65.6% for the period 2006-2010. The anal squamous cell carcinoma was the most common histology and showed better survival than other types of cancer. Females demonstrated better survival than males in all SEER stages. The 5-year survivals for patients in whom anal cancer developed before the age of 40 and at or after the age of 40 were 62.4% and 51.6%, respectively. The 5-year survival for patients in whom cancer developed at or after the age of 70 was much worse than that for patients in whom the cancer had developed prior to that age. Conclusion Korean anal cancer has certain distinctive characteristics of survival according to tumor histology, sex, and age. Despite limitations on available data, this study used the nationwide database to provide important information on the survival of Korean patients with anal cancer. Keywords: Anal neoplasms; Korean; Survival
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