Variation in Employment Growth in Canada: the Role of External, National, Regional and Industrial Factors
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Variation (astronomy)
Regional variation
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This paper investigates the conditional convergence of both human capital indicators and nominal per capita income across Canadian provinces in a panel-data empirical framework. Long-run relative provincial steady states are determined by relative rates of urbanization, onetime shocks to Quebec’s and Alberta’s relative steady states, and a Nova Scotia fixed effect. Indicators of relative human capital ratios appear to have converged following a pattern that is common and similar to per capita income but with two notable exceptions. First, in Alberta, the 1973 oil shock contributed to the rise in per capita income but its effect on human capital is significant only for females. Second, human capital appears to remain concentrated in the relatively poor province of Nova Scotia. Two notable findings come out of the analysis. First, nominal income disparities at the provincial level appear to be real, not just nominal. Second, the analysis suggests that at the regional level, human capital is a necessary but not sufficient condition for being wealthier in the long run.
Conditional convergence
Per capita income
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ABSTRACT: This essay aims at presenting a quantitative assessment of the incidence of structural differences in output and employment composition, and of differential dynamics of the sectoral production and productivity, in order to explain the divergences in net employment growth in advanced market economies. The point of reference is the extremely divergent record, in terms of employment creation, of the United States on one hand, and Western European countries on the other. In the period 1973‐80, for example, although the average growth rates of GNP were, on a cyclical average, similar in the U. S. A. and the EEC areas as a whole, additional job openings were about 14 million in the USA against less than half a million in the EEC. A structural, medium‐run differential in the aggregate Employment/GNP elasticity appears to have characterized the performances of these economic systems. The 'source’of this differential are analyzed, utilizing a model of sectoral decomposition of employment and output trends. Simulation exercises are carried out, in order to assess the specific role of productivity, sectoral demand composition and sectoral employment composition, in determining the overall elasticity result. The comparative analysis takes into consideration the differential factors for the USA and Japan, together with the four major Western European countries (German Fed. Rep., France, Italy, and the United Kingdom).
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World GDP fell by 0.6% in 2009. Buffeted by the shocks created by the great recession, the Thai economy contracted by 2.3% in that year. In this paper we ask how large the shocks to the Thai economy in 2008-09 were, how Thai households were affected by the shocks, and the extent to which the government’s response cushioned those effects for different groups of households.
Following the three-layer approach recommended by Bourguignon and Pereira da Silva (2003), we first quantify the magnitude of the reductions in exports (broken down by group) and tourism, by comparing the actual values with a plausible counterfactual. We estimate that from October 2008 through September 2009, tourist arrivals were 12% below trend, and the dollar value of exports fell by 16%.
In the second layer we use a SAM multiplier analysis (following Round 2003) to measure the direct, indirect, and induced effects of the exogenous shocks to tourism and exports, using an updated 81-sector Social Accounting Matrix that has 61 “industrial” sectors. This allows us to simulate the effects of the shocks on the income in each sector.
For the third layer we map the sectoral changes in incomes to household incomes, using data from the Socio-Economic Surveys, which sample about 3,500 households every month. This allows us to measure the effects of the shocks on the distribution of income, as well as along other dimensions, including region and gender.
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Liberian dollar
Fell
Social accounting matrix
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In a series of earlier papers we have examined the impact of exchange rate movements on employment and output in the manufacturing sector, disaggregated by industry sector and by production and non-production workers. In this paper we examine the impact of exchange rate movements on manufacturing employment, disaggregated geographically, using census divisions, regions, states and SMSA's as the unit of analysis. Empirical estimates of employment changes are first presented for the four census regions, the nine census divisions, and the fifty states plus the District of Columbia. For the country as a whole, we estimate that movements in the real exchange rate led to the loss of about 1 million manufacturing jobs over this period. We go on to examine in greater detail manufacturing employment in New York State, and report that exchange rate movements had a much larger impact in the areas outside of New York City than in the metropolitan area. This result is consistent with earlier work that found that employment in management or research is not as sensitive to exchange rate movements as employment in production processes. The New York results are followed by an examination of manufacturing employment in five southern states with large rural populations. Some policy makers have expressed a concern that manufacturing employment in rural areas suffered more than in urban areas during the period of the dollar appreciation. We find that within these five states, the impact of the exchange rate on manufacturing employment in the non-SMSA areas was the same or less than was the case for employment within SMSA areas. Finally, we use a multivariate model to explore why manufacturing employment is more sensitive to exchange rate movements in some states than in others. Factors which are associated with greater sensitivity of manufacturing employment to exchange rate movements are: the percent of the population living outside of SMSA areas, the level of production worker wages, and crude oil production. Factors that are associated with less sensitivity of manufacturing employment to exchange rate movements include the percent of the population with 4 years or more of college or per-capita expenditures on public secondary schools.
Liberian dollar
Manufacturing sector
Manufacturing
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Given today’s economic conditions it is becoming more essential to gain a better understanding of long run economic development in the US. This paper seeks to find economic sectors that show a significant impact on employment and income growth. This was done by estimating the elasticities for individual sectors (Manufacturing, Trade, Information, Business Services and Finance, Health and Education, and Other) and using a growth accounting approach to determine the contributions of labor for each. Over the sample period years (2001-11) it was found that business services and finance had the highest contribution to labor growth with an average annual growth of 15.7% for total output and 6.5% for total employment. In contrast, the manufacturing sector had an average annual growth of 0.14% for total output and -2.77% for employment over the same period. In the most recent years, 2010-11, the contribution of labor accounted for 8.1% of output growth in manufacturing versus 17.5% in the business services and finance sector. This suggests that there are structural changes occurring in today’s economy, and there is benefit to long run economic planning at the local level.
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The study analyses the relationship between the growth of the construction industry and economic shocks in Ghana over the 50-year period from 1968 to 2017 using an autoregressive modelling scheme that incorporates several economic shocks as separate independent variables. The independent variables used in the model included one positive economic shock and five negative shock variables. The positive shock variable was the sharply increased government expenditures on construction activities in selected years that allowed the government to host international events in Ghana within a period of two years. The five adverse economic shocks included in the model were political instability related to military coups, exchange rate depreciation of the local currency, Ghana cedi, with respect to the United States dollar, the average yearly temperature, aggregate electricity energy production shortfall related to a severe El Nino weather phenomenon, and incidence of extreme rainfall. The results of the analysis indicated that the most important factor influencing the growth of the construction industry in Ghana over the 50-year study period was political instability. Beyond political instability, the next most important factor was the purposely-driven sharp increases in government expenditures on construction activities for selected years that allowed the country to host international events in the country. The other significant economic shocks were the exchange rate depreciation, average temperatures, and electricity energy production shortfall; all three factors adversely affected the growth of the construction industry. The results of our study are generally consistent with those obtained from the literature concerning the positive and negative effects of economic shocks on the construction industry.
Depreciation (economics)
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In this paper we study the link between the employment rate (the employed proportion of the working age population) and output growth. We find that this relationship differs significantly across a sample of 11 OECD countries over the last 30 years. Output elasticities of the employment rate are found to be highest in the US, Canada, and the UK, and lowest in Japan and Austria. We also find that this elasticity is affected by some structural and institutional features, like the share of agriculture in output, the level of firing costs, the degree of inter-union and inter-firm coordination, and the percentage of employees in large firms.
R&D intensity
Elasticity
Sample (material)
Output elasticity
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Annual growth %
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Bust
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ABSTRACT Location Quotients are used to estimate economic base multipliers for two‐digit Standard Industrial Classification employment data at the county level for the state of Florida. Changes in multipliers are contrasted to changes in county employment profiles and demographic trends for the period 1982 to 1987. Counties are then classified by employment and growth characteristics. A cross‐sectional econometric model is constructed to explain regional shifts in total employment. It is demonstrated that although the Florida economy is supported by a low level of employment activity in primary and secondary sectors (relative to the tertiary sector), these sectors tend to be very important in explaining variations in regional economic growth. The empirical findings suggest that the alleged service‐oriented economy of Florida is still reliant upon export‐oriented activity as the catalyst for employment expansion.
Economic base analysis
Econometric model
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