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    Direct Simulation of the CoVid-19 epidemic
    medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) (2021)
    Augusto Cabrera-BecerrilPedro MiramóntesRaúl Peralta
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    Abstract:
    A bstract We introduce an agent-based model to simulate the epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19. Most computational models proposed to study this epidemic do no take into account human mobility. We present a direct simulation model where mobility plays a key role and propose as well four quarantine strategies. The results show that the no-quarantine strategy does lead to a high peak of contagions with no rebound. Quarantined strategies, for their part, show a re-emergence of the epidemic with smaller and softer peaks.
    Keywords:
    Epidemic model
    2019-20 coronavirus outbreak
    Pandemic
    Topics:
    COVID-19 epidemiological studies
    Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
    SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
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