Air Conditioning and Heat-related Mortality
Francesco SeraMasahiro HashizumeYasushi HondaÉric LavigneJoel SchwartzAntonella ZanobettiAurelio Tobı́asCarmen ÍñiguezAna M. Vicedo‐CabreraMarta BlangiardoBen ArmstrongAntonio Gasparrini
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Air conditioning has been proposed as one of the key factors explaining reductions of heat-related mortality risks observed in the last decades. However, direct evidence is still limited.We used a multi-country, multi-city, longitudinal design to quantify the independent role of air conditioning in reported attenuation in risk. We collected daily time series of mortality, mean temperature, and yearly air conditioning prevalence for 311 locations in Canada, Japan, Spain, and the USA between 1972 and 2009. For each city and sub-period, we fitted a quasi-Poisson regression combined with distributed lag non-linear models to estimate summer-only temperature-mortality associations. At the second stage, we used a novel multilevel, multivariate spatio-temporal meta-regression model to evaluate effect modification of air conditioning on heat-mortality associations. We computed relative risks and fractions of heat-attributable excess deaths under observed and fixed air conditioning prevalences.Results show an independent association between increased air conditioning prevalence and lower heat-related mortality risk. Excess deaths due to heat decreased during the study periods from 1.40% to 0.80% in Canada, 3.57% to 1.10% in Japan, 3.54% to 2.78% in Spain, and 1.70% to 0.53% in the USA. However, increased air conditioning explains only part of the observed attenuation, corresponding to 16.7% in Canada, 20.0% in Japan, 14.3% in Spain, and 16.7% in the USA.Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that air conditioning represents an effective heat adaptation strategy, but suggests that other factors have played an equal or more important role in increasing the resilience of populations.Keywords:
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The purpose of this study was to examine foreign direct investment (FDI) in the context of Sudan between the years 1990 and 2020 by using the bounds testing method of cointegration and the error-correction model.As per the results, it can be understood that the variables considered for the study are combined on a long-term basis if FDI remains a dependent variable.Further, a significant equilibrium correction was found, which supports the existence of a longterm relationship.A number of internal and external factors (especially gross domestic product (GDP), trade openness, inflation, exchange rate, and growth rate, as well as additional macroeconomic indicators such as investment/GDP) were found to impact the state of FDI in Sudan.The variables showed no causalities as per the outcomes of the Granger causality test.Moreover, as per the variance decomposition results, the forecast error variance of FDI, in addition to that of GDP, investment/GDP, and inflation, was found to be self-explanatory.Additionally, as per the impulse response functions, the results demonstrated a short-term negative association between GDP and FDI, suggesting that Sudan possesses inadequate absorptive capacity for promoting its economy using FDI.The results of this research emphasized how selective public policies can be utilized to promote FDI and consequently facilitate short-and long-term economic growth.Therefore, it is useful to recommend some policy implications to promote the application of FDI in Sudan.
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This paper investigates the long-term effect of financial development on economic growth using annual data for 67 countries over the period 1971 to 2007. Both autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) models are applied to count for crosscountry heterogeneity and error cross-country dependence. The results uphold a positive and significant effect of financial development on long-run per capita output. There is also some evidence of a non-linear relationship between financial development and growth. However, the analysis also reveals that the results derive primarily from non-democratic countries.
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The rate of capital flows into the emerging markets is alarming and has become a subject of debate in the literature. It is mostly believed that capital flows are beneficial to the economies of the developing countries as it engenders the efficient allocation of global resources thereby increasing the availability of capital required for investment and economic growth. Despite the general belief, the macroeconomic variables that determine capital flows remain controversial. In the light of this, the study attempted to examine the long-run and short-run determinants of capital flows into Nigeria. The study employed secondary data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), FRED Economic data, and World Development Indicator between the periods of 1986-2014. Using the econometric technique of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), the study found that exchange rate (LnEXR) and stock market prices (LnSP) are important determinants of capital flows into Nigeria both in the short-run and long-run. It is, therefore, recommended that the government, through its policies, should make concerted effort in boosting the activities at the stock market in a bid to attract capital flows into the country.
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This paper investigates the long-term effect of financial development on economic growth using annual data for 67 countries over the period 1971 to 2007. Both autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) models are applied to count for crosscountry heterogeneity and error cross-country dependence. The results uphold a positive and significant effect of financial development on long-run per capita output. There is also some evidence of a non-linear relationship between financial development and growth. However, the analysis also reveals that the results derive primarily from non-democratic countries.
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This study examined the relationship between government spending on economic infrastructure and economic growth in Nigeria from 1989 to 2018.Real gross domestic product was used to proxy economic growth and was specified as a function of government spending on transport and communication, government spending on power and employment rate (as a proxy for the classical theory of labour force).The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds method to cointegration was chosen to ascertain the impact and the long-run relationship between the dependent and independent variables.The short-run and long-run results showed that government spending on power exerted a positive but insignificant effect on Nigeria's RGDP.However, government spending on transport and communication had a positive relationship in the short-run but negative relationship in the long-run.Furthermore, the Causality results showed a uni-directional causality running from RGDP to GEXP and EMP to GEXTC but there was no evidence to support the existence of causality between the remaining pairs of variable.It is recommended that in order for Nigeria to achieve infrastructure development success, it is important that the government redirect excessive revenue in the maintenance of government official to these pivotal sectors of the economy with a view to monitoring the implementation after disbursing funds to the affected ones to subsequently trigger economic growth.
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