Estimating the Magnitude of Illicit Cigarette Trade in Bangladesh: Protocol for a Mixed-Methods Study
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The illicit tobacco trade undermines the effectiveness of tobacco tax policies; increases the availability of cheap cigarettes, which, in turn, increases tobacco use and tobacco related deaths; and causes huge revenue losses to governments. There is limited evidence on the extent of illicit tobacco trade particularly cigarettes in Bangladesh. The paper presents the protocol for a mixed-methods study to estimate the extent of illicit cigarette trade in Bangladesh. The study will address three research questions: (a) What proportion of cigarettes sold as retail are illicit? (b) What are the common types of tax avoidance and tax evasion? (c) Can pack examination from the trash recycle market be considered as a new method to assess illicit trade in comparison to that from retailers and streets? Following an observational research method, data will be collected utilizing empty cigarette packs from three sources: (a) retailers; (b) streets; and (c) trash recycle market. In addition, a structured questionnaire will be used to collect information from retailers selling cigarettes. We will select post codes as Primary Sampling Unit (PSU) using a multi-stage random sampling technique. We will randomly select eight districts from eight divisions stratified by those with land border and non-land border; and within each district, we will randomly select ten postcodes, stratified by rural (five) and urban (five) PSU to ensure maximum geographical variation, leading to a total of eighty post codes from eight districts. The analysis will report the proportions of packs that do not comply with the study definition of illicit. Independent estimates of illicit tobacco are rare in low- and middle-income countries such as Bangladesh. Findings will inform efforts by revenue authorities and others to address the effects of illicit trade and counter tobacco industry claims.Keywords:
Stratified Sampling
Government revenue
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72 preschoolers and 72 school children observed the original discrimination of nonreversal shift (NRS) followed by 14 NRS trials by themselves. The observational trials were 10 or 30 in each age group. The correct (_??_) or incorrect (×) responses on the 1st (unchanged pair) and the 2nd (changed pair) trials of NRS were mainly measured. In preschoolers, both dependent observational-learning mode (_??_-× responses: DOL) and independent observational-learning mode (_??_-_??_ and ×-×: IOL) were found, but no observational-trial effects on the modes were found. In school children, DOL occurred significantly more than IOL in both groups, and the observational-trial effect was also found. Subproblem analyses suggested that the _??_-× responses were indeed the “dependent” mode rather than the “independent” one.
Observational learning
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Government revenue
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The purposes of this study were to develop and implement an observational training program and to assess the effects of a video observational training program on video and live observational proficiency. Physical education majors took a pretest in both a video and a live environment to assess observational proficiency. The task was observing children batting and answering questions regarding the critical features of the movement. The students were then placed into either a treatment ( n = 12) or a control ( n = 11) group. There were no differences between groups on either assessment ( p > .05). The treatment group then participated in a video observational training program. After the training, all subjects took a posttest in each environment to assess observational proficiency. The training was found to be effective in improving video observational proficiency ( p < .05) but not live observational proficiency ( p > .05). These results provide support for the effectiveness of video observational training in developing video observational proficiency but not live observational proficiency.
Observational learning
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Observational methods such as OW AS. RULA. and REBA have been widely used to identify posture-related risks of musculoskeletal disorders in industry, since they are useful and efficient in evaluating postural stresses. However. there are few studies comparing the methods and providing guidelines for selecting and using the methods. They have been developed based on different backgrounds and with different application areas. Each method has its own characteristics. which must be considered in selecting and using them. In this study. 17 male subjects evaluated 42 different working postures that frequently assumed in the automobile assembly line using a psychophysical method. The postures were then evaluated by different observational methods. The results of the observational methods were compared with psychophysically evaluated stresses. The observational methods resulted in different values of stresses for certain postures. For some postures showing high values of perceived discomfort. the observational methods showed different values of stresses. These results showed that the observational methods should be used differently according to application area and they have some weak points to be improved.
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Regression discontinuity design
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Studies can be observational or experimental. With an observational study, the investigator does not determine the assignment of subjects, and there might not be a control group. If there is a control group, assignment of the independent variable (exposure or intervention) is not under the control of the investigator. Observational studies can be rigorously conducted, but the lack of random assignment of the exposure/intervention introduces confounding and bias. Thus, the quality of evidence resulting from observational studies is lower than that of experimental randomized controlled trials (RCTs). An observational study might be performed if an RCT is unethical, impractical, or outside the control of the investigator. There are many types of prospective and retrospective observational study designs. However, an observational study design should be avoided if an experimental study is possible. Sophisticated statistical approaches can be used, but this does not elevate an observational study to the level of an RCT. Regardless of quality, an observational study cannot establish causality.
Causality
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The article describes the basic rules for conducting observational studies, in particular, registers. The principles of the assessment of its quality and impact on the results are discussed. The potential for evaluating therapeutic effect and side effects in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies is compared. Effects of one drug identified in RCTs and observational studies are compared.
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