Information Choice, Uncertainty, and Expected Returns
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We investigate how information choices impact equity returns and risk. Building on an existing theoretical model of information and investment choice, we estimate a learning index that reflects the expected benefits of learning about an asset. High learning index stocks have lower future returns and risk compared to low learning index stocks. Analysis of a conditional asset pricing model, long run patterns in returns and volatilities, other measures of information flow, and the information environment surrounding earnings announcements reinforce our interpretation of the learning index. Our findings support the model's predictions and illustrate a novel empirical measure of investor learning.Consumption
Misery index
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The theoretical literature that neglects the benefits of stabilization policies (e.g., Lucas 1987, 2003) ultimately relies on the low impact of macroeconomic volatility on aggregate income and consumption. We argue that this conclusion is theoretically and empirically weak. Theoretically, the cost of volatility should be measured by including not only monetary magnitudes, but also those psychological costs whose relevance has been stressed by behavioural economics and that are correlated with the number of unemployment episodes. We refer here to implications for the experienced utility of loss aversion, the endowment effect and hedonic adaptation. Empirically, downturns more severely affect those who have less and who suffer greater well-being losses from each shock, magnifying the negative impact of recessions. It follows that the traditional analysis, which disregards the main causes of well-being losses determined by downturns, cannot represent a sound basis for dismissing policies aimed at preventing downturns (and/or their impact on the labour market).
Endowment
Consumption
Loss aversion
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Capital (architecture)
Terms of trade
Value (mathematics)
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This paper argues that the rate of equilibrium unemployment depends on the objectives of the Central Bank. In a model where the Central Bank uses monetary policy to stabilise the economy, we show that unemployment and inflation will be lower with an inflation target than with targets for output, money or nominal GDP. The intuition for this is that the elasticities of demand in both the product and the labour markets are greater when there is an inflation target; we show that this leads to a lower mark‐up of price over marginal cost and makes wages more sensitive to unemployment.
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ABSTRACT Empirical observations suggest the existence of an unstable inflation‐unemployment trade‐off: whereas high levels of employment generate accelerating inflation rates, stability of the price level seems to require growing rates of unemployment. Under these conditions, macroeconomic policy has to produce countervailing economic fluctuations in order to limit the extent of the two‐sided instability. This is discussed within the framework of a macroeconomic model, in which prices and wages are determined by potential competition, and in which employment depends on monetary demand. The model is confronted with prevailing natural rate theories in which a stable equilibrium rate of employment is determined by supply conditions.
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Economic stability
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Ricardian behavior may increase the variance of consumption: A change in national income will change future tax liabilities endogenously; if consumers are Ricardian, consumption will change for this reason. This paper studies the effects of these changes on the stability of an economy with sticky prices. The analysis indicates that Ricardian tax discounting would tend to reduce macroeconomic stability.
Consumption
New Keynesian economics
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Rationing
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Бұл зерттеужұмысындaКaно моделітурaлы жәнеоғaн қaтыстытолықмәліметберілгенжәнеуниверситетстуденттерінебaғыттaлғaн қолдaнбaлы (кейстік)зерттеужүргізілген.АхметЯссaуи университетініңстуденттеріүшін Кaно моделіқолдaнылғaн, олaрдың жоғaры білімберусaпaсынa қоятынмaңыздытaлaптaры, яғнисaпaлық қaжеттіліктері,олaрдың мaңыздылығытурaлы жәнесaпaлық қaжеттіліктерінеқaтыстыөз университетінқaлaй бaғaлaйтындығытурaлы сұрaқтaр қойылғaн. Осы зерттеудіңмaқсaты АхметЯсaуи университетіндетуризмменеджментіжәнеқaржы бaкaлaвриaт бaғдaрлaмaлaрыныңсaпaсынa қaтыстыстуденттердіңқaжеттіліктерінaнықтaу, студенттердіңқaнaғaттaну, қaнaғaттaнбaу дәрежелерінбелгілеу,білімберусaпaсын aнықтaу мен жетілдіружолдaрын тaлдaу болыптaбылaды. Осы мaқсaтқaжетуүшін, ең aлдыменКaно сaуaлнaмaсы түзіліп,116 студенткеқолдaнылдыжәнебілімберугежәнеоның сaпaсынa қaтыстыстуденттердіңтaлaптaры мен қaжеттіліктерітоптықжұмыстaрaрқылыaнықтaлды. Екіншіден,бұл aнықтaлғaн тaлaптaр мен қaжеттіліктерКaно бaғaлaу кестесіменжіктелді.Осылaйшa, сaпa тaлaптaры төрт сaнaтқa бөлінді:болуытиіс, бір өлшемді,тaртымдыжәнебейтaрaп.Соңындa,қaнaғaттaну мен қaнaғaттaнбaудың мәндеріесептелдіжәнестуденттердіңқaнaғaттaну мен қaнaғaттaнбaу деңгейлерінжоғaрылaту мен төмендетудеосытaлaптaр мен қaжеттіліктердіңрөліaйқын aнықтaлды.Түйінсөздер:сaпa, сaпaлық қaжеттіліктер,білімберусaпaсы, Кaно моделі.
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