Global change effects on plant communities are magnified by time and the number of global change factors imposed
Kimberly J. KomatsuMeghan L. AvolioNathan P. LemoineForest IsbellEmily GrmanGregory R. HousemanSally E. KoernerDavid Samuel JohnsonKevin R. WilcoxJuha M. AlataloJohn P. AndersonRien AertsSara G. BaerAndrew H. BaldwinJonathan D. BatesCarl BeierkuhnleinR. Travis BeloteJohn M. BlairJuliette BloorPatrick J. BohlenEdward W. BorkElizabeth H. BoughtonWilliam D. BowmanAndrea J. BrittonJames F. CahillEnrique J. ChanetonNona R. ChiarielloJimin ChengScott L. CollinsJ. Hans C. CornelissenGuozhen DuAnu EskelinenJennifer FirnBryan L. FosterLaura GoughKatherine L. GrossLauren M. HallettXingguo HanHarry HarmensMark J. HovendenAnnika K. JägerbrandAnke JentschChristel C. KernKari KlanderudAlan K. KnappJüergen KreylingWei LiYiqi LuoRebecca L. McCulleyJennie R. McLarenJ. Patrick MegonigalJohn W. MorganV. G. OnipchenkoSteven C. PenningsJanet S. PrevéyJodi N. PricePeter B. ReichClare H. RobinsonFrancis RussellOsvaldo E. SalaEric W. SeabloomMelinda D. SmithNadejda A. SoudzilovskaiaLara SouzaKatherine SudingK. Blake SuttleTony J. SvejcarDavid TilmanPedro M. TognettiRoy TurkingtonShannon R. WhiteZhuwen XuLaura YahdjianQiang YuPengfei ZhangYunhai Zhang
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Abstract:
Significance Accurate prediction of community responses to global change drivers (GCDs) is critical given the effects of biodiversity on ecosystem services. There is consensus that human activities are driving species extinctions at the global scale, but debate remains over whether GCDs are systematically altering local communities worldwide. Across 105 experiments that included over 400 experimental manipulations, we found evidence for a lagged response of herbaceous plant communities to GCDs caused by shifts in the identities and relative abundances of species, often without a corresponding difference in species richness. These results provide evidence that community responses are pervasive across a wide variety of GCDs on long-term temporal scales and that these responses increase in strength when multiple GCDs are simultaneously imposed.Keywords:
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During the last centuries, humans have transformed global ecosystems. With their temporal dimension, herbaria provide the otherwise scarce long-term data crucial to track ecological and evolutionary changes over these centuries of global change. The sheer size of herbaria, together with their increasing digitization and the possibility of sequencing DNA from the preserved plant material, makes them invaluable resources to understand ecological and evolutionary species responses to global environmental change. Following the chronology of global change, we highlight how herbaria can inform about long-term effects on plants of at least four of the main drivers of global change: pollution, habitat change, climate change, and invasive species. We summarize how herbarium specimens so far have been used in global change research, discuss future opportunities and challenges posed by the nature of these data, and advocate for an intensified use of these 'windows into the past' for global change research and beyond.
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