Improving risk stratification in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction by combining two validated risk scores
Kalyani BoralkarYukari KobayashiKegan MoneghettiVedant PargaonkarMirela TuzovicGomathi KrishnanMatthew T. WheelerDipanjan BanerjeeTatiana KuznetsovaBenjamin D. HorneKirk U. KnowltonPaul A. HeidenreichFrançois Haddad
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Introduction The Intermountain Risk Score (IMRS) was developed and validated to predict short-term and long-term mortality in hospitalised patients using demographics and commonly available laboratory data. In this study, we sought to determine whether the IMRS also predicts all-cause mortality in patients hospitalised with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and whether it is complementary to the Get with the Guidelines Heart Failure (GWTG-HF) risk score or N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). Methods and results We used the Stanford Translational Research Integrated Database Environment to identify 3847 adult patients with a diagnosis of HFpEF between January 1998 and December 2016. Of these, 580 were hospitalised with a primary diagnosis of acute HFpEF. Mean age was 76±16 years, the majority being female (58%), with a high prevalence of diabetes mellitus (36%) and a history of coronary artery disease (60%). Over a median follow-up of 2.0 years, 140 (24%) patients died. On multivariable analysis, the IMRS and GWTG-HF risk score were independently associated with all-cause mortality (standardised HRs IMRS (1.55 (95% CI 1.27 to 1.93)); GWTG-HF (1.60 (95% CI 1.27 to 2.01))). Combining the two scores, improved the net reclassification over GWTG-HF alone by 36.2%. In patients with available NT-proBNP (n=341), NT-proBNP improved the net reclassification of each score by 46.2% (IMRS) and 36.3% (GWTG-HF). Conclusion IMRS and GWTG-HF risk scores, along with NT-proBNP, play a complementary role in predicting outcome in patients hospitalised with HFpEF.Keywords:
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Demographics
I have been promising (or threatening, depending on your point of view) for some time to write on the subject of SEG's demographics and now is the time. One could say that it is SEG's most important issue because our demographic profile says a lot about our society and deeply influences our future. Yet, I have been slow to bring the issue to the fore because I have been puzzled by some aspects of our demographics and also needed to collect some hard data. I think you may find the results interesting.
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This entry discusses some recent studies that measure and analyze the demographics or basic characteristics of journalists in the United States and in a number of other countries around the world.
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Abstract This article examines the influence of plan demographics, which is defined as the salary and tenure composition of a plan, on contribution behavior of 401(k) participants. Results using a large sample of 401(k) plans show that plan demographics influence participant contribution rates directly or through interaction with individual demographic characteristics. A participant's contribution rate can be varied by 1.6–3.0 percentage points for each age between 25 and 64, depending on what plan demographics she is exposed to. In addition, for the decision to contribute the maximum allowed amount, plan demographics significantly interact with individual demographic characteristics.
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This paper examines the impact that demographics have on policy outcomes. The impact that aldermanic ward‐level demographics have on the number of liquor licenses is measured in two US cities. In one city there is a great deal of direct resident involvement in the issuance process, while in the other city, issuance decisions are handled by elected representatives. This research does find that demographics have a significant impact on policy outcomes. However, the paper does not find a significant difference in outcomes between decisions made by elected representatives and those made by the community.
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Abstract Background Re-worsening left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) after initial recovery occurs in some patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). However, prevalence and predictors of re-worsening LVEF in longitudinal follow-up are unclear. Late gadolinium enhancement of cardiovascular magnetic resonance (LGE-CMR) can evaluate the damage of myocardial tissue. Purpose This study sought to evaluate the clinical parameters including LGE-CMR to predict re-worsening LVEF in patients with recent-onset DCM. Methods We included patients with recent-onset DCM who had an LVEF <45% and underwent LGE-CMR at diagnosis. We performed yearly echocardiographc follow-up [median 6 [4–8.3] years]. Initial LVEF recovery defined as patients increased in >5% LVEF from baseline and had an LVEF≥45% after medical therapy. Patients were divided into three groups: (1) Improved: defined as those with sustained LVEF ≥45% after initial LVEF recovery; (2) Re-worse: those with decreased >5% and had an LVEF <45% after initial LVEF recovery. and (3) Not-improved: those with no initial LVEF recovery during follow-up. To evaluate the prognostic factors for Re-worsening LVEF after initial LVEF recovery, multivariate logistic regression analysis performed between the Improved group and the Re-worse group. Cardiac events defined as hospitalization due to heart failure and sudden death. Results Of 138 patents, 82 patients (59%) were the Improved group, 42 patients (30%) were the Re-worse group, and 14 (10%) were the Not-improved group. Loess curves of long-term LVEF trajectories showed that LVEF in the Re-worse group increased first 2 years and declined slowly thereafter (Fig. 1A). Re-worsening LVEF occurred 4.5±2.2 years after initial LVEF recovery. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that LGE area at baseline (Odds ratio: 1.09, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.18, p=0.014) and Log brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) at initial LVEF recovery (Odds ratio: 1.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01–2.31, p=0.042) were independent predictors for Re-worsening LVEF. Kaplan Meier analysis demonstrated that the risk of cardiac events in the Re-worse group was significantly higher (hazard ratio: 3.93, 95% CI 1.49–10.36, p=0.006) than in the Improved group and lower risk than in the Not-improved group (hazard ratio: 0.28, 95% CI 0.12–0.62, p=0.002) (Fig. 1B). Conclusion Re-worsening LVEF occurred in 30% of patients in patients with recent-onset DCM. LGE area and BNP at initial LVEF recovery were independently associated with re-worsening LVEF after initial LVEF recovery. Figure 1 Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None
Dilated Cardiomyopathy
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To describe the impact of ejection fraction on the prognosis during 2 years after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).All patients in western Sweden who underwent CABG without concomitant valve surgery between June 1988 and June 1991.In all, 2121 patients were operated upon and information on ejection fraction was available for 1961 patients (92%). Of these patients, 178 (9%) had an ejection fraction < 40%, 517 (26%) an ejection fraction of 40-59% and 1266 (65%) an ejection fraction > or = 60%. In these groups the mortalities during the first 30 days after CABG were 5.1, 4.3 and 2.2%, respectively (P < 0.01). The corresponding values for mortalities between 30 days and 2 years were 7.7, 4.3 and 3.3%, respectively (P < 0.01). Patients with a lower ejection fraction were more frequently men and more frequently had a history of cardiovascular disease. In multivariate analysis the preoperative ejection fraction was an independent predictor for total 2-year mortality. Patients with a low ejection fraction died more frequently in association with ventricular fibrillation. Morbidity was, with the exception of that for rehospitalization due to heart failure and infection, not associated significantly with the preoperative ejection fraction.During the 2 years after CABG a low preoperative ejection fraction was associated with a higher mortality, but the association with morbidity was more complex.
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