The Death of Monetarism?
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This paper provides a critical discussion of monetarism and the difficulties of understanding macroeconomic developments after the publication of Friedman and Schwartz's classic 1965 article through a monetarist lens, especially for the period following the great financial crisis. This paper proposes three research directions for broadening the classical monetarist framework and provides new foundations for monetary economics.
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This paper offers a retrospective on the monetarist debate started by Milton Friedman in the 1950s, discussing both monetarist theory and policy recommendations. While the inability to find a controllable monetary aggregate with a velocity that can be accurately predicted has severely damaged the monetarist case, on other issues, such as the importance of changes in the monetary growth rate and the need to control inflation, the monetarist challenge to Keynesian orthodoxy was successful and made a central contribution to the currently prevailing macroeconomics.
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Monetarism
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In his presidential address to the American Economic Association (AEA), Milton Friedman (1968) warned not to expect too much from monetary policy.In particular, Friedman argued that monetary policy could not permanently influence the levels of real output, unemployment, or real rates of return on securities.However, Friedman did assert that a monetary authority could exert substantial control over the inflation rate, especially in the long run.The purpose of this paper* is to argue that, even in an economy that satisfies monetarist assumptions, if monetary policy is interpreted as open market operations, then Friedman's list of the things that monetary policy cannot permanently control may have to be expanded to include inflation.In the context of this paper, an economy that satisfies•Partly written during Sargent's visit at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts.Danny Quah wrote Appendix C, performed all the computations, and gave very helpful criticisms and suggestions.!We will not exhaust the possible circumstances under which the monetary authority's control over inflation is very limited in monetarist economies.We will not even touch on the variety of nonmonetarist economies in which this is true.For examples of
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Monetarist economists appear to have achieved a high level of success in having their policy ideas put into practice. The monetarists are analyzed here as a political group. They are characterized as a loosely organized group offering distinct policy prescriptions, closely aligned with neoliberal political forces. The supply of monetarists is discussed in terms of their relative numbers and shared socialization experiences. The demand for monetarist analysis stems from needs for policy prescriptions, from self-interest, and from need for ideological reassurance. This article concludes with the argument that monetarists' success depends on their ability to convince policymakers outside the Federal Reserve to adopt a monetarist line.
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The rise in the rate of inflation during the 1970s was paralleled by a rise in interest in monetarism, which offered the means for controlling inflation. Despite the increased interest, monetarism is still often misunderstood, as Thomas M. Humphrey points out in “On Nonneutral Relative Price Effects in Monetarist Thought: Some Austrian Misconceptions.” Economists of the Austrian school have portrayed monetarism as oblivious to the effects of monetary disturbances on the real economy of output and jobs. Humphrey exposes their fallacy with selections from monetarist literature from the 19th century to the present. He shows that monetarism is actually similar to Austrian theory in stressing the relative price effects of monetary disturbances. As a result, monetarists and Austrians agree that to decrease disruptions to the real economy, monetary volatility should be minimized.
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