[Comparative analysis of the differential fertility between urban and rural areas].
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Abstract:
Component analysis, a standardized analytical method, is used to compare the difference of fertility between Japanese urban and rural areas in this study. To compare the differences of fertility rate between two population groups, urban and rural areas, is the same as to compare the average number of children in both areas. Three important factors are found in the differences between the average number of children by duration of marriage in both areas: 1) the difference of composition rate under different socio-economic conditions; 2) the difference of fertility rate under different socio-economic conditions; 3) the compound differences of fertility rate and the composition rate. The age of first marriage and the number of children desired in both urban and rural areas are analyzed. The results show about 75% of the fertility rate differences in urban and rural areas are dependent on the desired number of children, and only 10% are influenced by the age of first marriage.Keywords:
Total fertility rate
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From 1940 to 1975 the birth rate in the (R.S.F.S.R.) decreased from 33.0 to 15.7/1000 people, or by 52.4%. For rural population in Dagestan and Turvin autonomous regions the birth rate was maintained at a high level: 43.7-44.4 in 1960, 32.2-32.5 in 1970 and 29.6-30.8 in 1975. The birth rate of the rural population in comparison with that of urban areas of the R.S.F.S.R. was higher in 1960 but lower in 1970 and 1975. From 1965 to 1975 in most of the urban regions the decrease of the birth rate was accompanied by an increase in the proportion of the first-born. The proportion of children following the first-born was higher for the rural population. The indexes of fertility from 1965 to 1976 decreased for the urban population but slightly increased for the rural population. The fertility rate per 1000 women 15-49 years old was the highest in Chuvash autonomous region (310.7) and the lowest in Moscow and Leningrad (38.4 - 39.8). The data shows the development of a new type of reproductive behavior in the R.S.F.S.R. - the tendency towards smaller families. This process is almost completed in the urban areas, and is in progress in the rural districts and in some autonomous regions has only just begun.
Total fertility rate
Rural population
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Live birth rates by age of mother and total fertility rates by urban and rural areas in Japan are generally decreasing. Japanese women ages 15-49 were studied. Graphs presenting fertility rates according to age in 1975 and 1980 in urban and rural areas show that fertility rates are considerably higher in rural areas than in urban centers (by as much as 20% for the 25-29 age group). In a table showing urban/rural total fertility rates and distributions among prefectures in 1975 and 1980, the prefecture with the highest total fertility rate (2.88495 in 1975 and 2.37804 in 1980) is Okinawa and the lowest total fertility rate is found in Tokyo (1.62287 in 1975 and 1.43693 in 1980). The average total fertility rate in 1980 was 1.82849; in urban centers it was 1.78919 and rural areas, 1.92105. Finally, a comparison of total fertility rates by urban and rural areas and by age shows that in 1975 the rural fertility rate was .16 higher than that of urban areas, and that in 1980 all fertility rates (total, urban, and rural) were lower, with the rural fertility rate decreasing at the same rate as did the urban fertility rate in 1975. It is interesting to note that between 1975-1980 birth rates have been decreasing in both urban and rural areas in all age groups except for the 30-34 year old group which in urban centers was higher in 1980 than in rural areas. This can be attributed to the recent trend among Japanese women of delaying childbirth.
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Hispanics have had a demographic impact on the United States far beyond their relative importance within the total population because of their high fertility rates. In fact, it is quite clear that the United States would have had below population replacement rates of reproduction in the past few decades had it not been for the contribution of the Hispanic population, and above all Mexicans and Central Americans. When the Center for Disease Control first began enumerating Hispanic births in a systematic way in 1990, their fertility rate was already well above national averages. In that year the total fertility rate (defined as births per hundred women ages 15–44) among Hispanic women was 3.2 children, while the comparable rate for non-Hispanic white women was 1.9 children, a rate that had prevailed since the late 1970s. The rapid growth of the Latino population since 1990, and their consistently higher fertility rates compared with the rest of the population, has resulted in the national population growing naturally at or above a total fertility rate of 2.1 children, which is the threshold for the population replacement level. Without this Hispanic population growth U.S. fertility rates would have resembled those of most European countries, which have fallen below population replacement levels.
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Due to imbalanced supplies of medical and healthcare resources between the capital city and other areas, Bangkok attracts its non-residents to access hospitals in the city only for giving births. This causes overestimation of Bangkok’s fertility rate and affects results of population projection. Therefore, this paper aims to project real Bangkok population numbers by age group and sex to 2030 by eliminating the influence of Bangkok-born outsiders. It introduces a new fertility rate calculation based on data from National Statistical Office of Thailand. The results show that in 2010 the total fertility rate of Bangkok was merely 0.8. All components being fixed, the projection displays shifts in population age structure, the age group with highest numbers from 25-34 years old in 2010 to 40-44 years old in 2030. Percent aging population expands from 9.6 to 22.6 percent. Furthermore, proportion of population aged 0-14 shrinks from 12.8 percent to 9.6 percent, which means Bangkok in 2030 is expected to face a seriously low number of young populations in opposite to its large number of elderly.
Total fertility rate
Population projection
Capital city
Age structure
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According to the Russian National Population Census from October 9, 2002, the resident population of Yakutia was 949,300. Of the total population, 365,200 were of Yakut ethnicity. This means that Yakutia failed to retain its status as a region of more than 1 million residents. In the previous census, from 1989, the population was 1,094,100. This population decline is associated with a large rate of emigration, as well as a decrease in the rate of natural increase. In 2002, the total fertility rate was 2.53 births per woman in rural areas and 1.56 in urban areas, compared with the figure necessary for population replacement – 2.23 births per woman. In rural areas, the total fertility rate remained sufficient for replacement of parents in the population by their children. In Russia as a whole, the total fertility rate was 1.32 births per woman. A number of regions in Central Russia had an even lower total fertility rate – 1.1 births per woman. In difficult economic times, the reproductive health of the indigenous Northern peoples, including men, and particularly in Yakutia, is cause for legitimate concern. (Published: 30 October 2014) Citation: Int J Circumpolar Health 2014, 73: 25872 - http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/ijch.v73.25872
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Although French population increased between 1954 and 1977, the increase continuously slowed down during the past 15 years, a sure sign of fertility rate decline. Since mortality rate and migratory movements have been stable in France for the past 10 years, and birth rate has decreased, the replacement of population depends now solely on fertility rate. Contraception in France is practiced by about 1/3 of women in fertile age, a percentage much too low to use contraception as the cause for low fertility rate. 2 children is considered the ideal family size by most French couples; not enough, however, to assure a national demographic stabilization. Population growth estimations have shown that if every woman had 2.6 children, in the year 2100 the total French population would be 131 millions, corresponding to a population density of 231/Km, a density much inferior to that of Germany, Holland, and Belgium.
Total fertility rate
Sub-replacement fertility
Population momentum
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India's 846.3 million people, who comprise 16% of the world population, inhabit just 2.4% of the total world area. India is the 2nd most populous country in the world. 74% of people live in 600,000 villages that follow traditional social and cultural practices. Population growth peaked during 1961-1981 at 2.2%/year. It began to fall slightly during 1981-1991 to 2.1%/year. Even though those younger than 15 years old comprise the largest population age group (39.6%), the group is decreasing (42% in 1971). India's dependency ratio is 0.9 for both children and the elderly and 0.8 for children alone. India has an excess number of males (929 females/1000 males), due largely to discrimination against females. Pregnancy and child birth are responsible for female death rates peaking at ages 15-29. Delayed marriages are more common than in the past (6.6% in 1981 and 19% in 1961). Most internal migration is from rural area to rural area (especially for females leaving their parents' home to go to that of their husband's) and rural area to urban area. Population density varies by state from 10 people/sq. km. to 6319 people/sq. km (mean = 267/sq. km.). Total fertility is 3.9 in rural areas and 2.7 in urban areas. 71% of births have a birth interval of less than 3 years. The 1985-1990 death rate in India compares to that of developed countries (9.8 vs. 10), but its infant mortality rate is still high (79 vs. 15). The population projections for 2001-2006 of the Standing Committee on Population Projections are 1003.1 million for population size, 23 for birth rate and 7.8 for death rate. It expects the population to stabilize (i.e., 0 growth rate) at 1.5 billion around 2080. This figure is much less than that of the World Bank's projection.
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