Clinical and experimental practice in psychology: kinds of inferences
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Clinical Practice
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Educational test theory consists of statistical and methodological tools to support inference about examinees’ knowledge, skills, and accomplishments. Its evolution has been shaped by the nature of users’ inferences, which have been framed almost exclusively in terms of trait and behavioral psychology, and focused on students’ tendency to act in prespecified ways in prespecified domains of tasks. Progress in the methodology of test theory enabled users to extend the range of inference and ground interpretations more solidly within these psychological paradigms. Developments in cognitive and developmental psychology have broadened the range of inferences we wish to make about students’ learning to encompass conjectures about the nature and acquisition of their knowledge. The same underlying principles of inference that led to standard test theory can support inference in this broader universe of discourse. Familiar models and methods‐sometimes extended, sometimes reinterpreted, sometimes applied to problems wholly different from those for which they were first devised‐can play a useful role to this end.
Statistical Inference
Trait
Test theory
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In 3 experiments, affirmative and hypothetical probes were presented after narrative texts containing conditional arguments. According to the data, readers represented modus ponens deductions as certain, except when it was only a weakly necessary cause of a given effect. They represented any logically invalid inferences resulting from affirming the conditional consequent as hypothetical, except when it was the effect of strongly sufficient cause. Accordingly, readers must be processing conditional syntax as an asymmetric constraint. However, the underlying causal knowledge can be sufficient either to discredit or warrant the inferences. Thus according to the theory of natural logic, readers can draw formal deductions and be convinced of their necessity. This provides further evidence that readers can represent their inferences as hypothetical (N. Campion, 2004).
Modus ponens
Warrant
Rule of inference
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Ordinal optimization
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Three different theories have been presented to explain how metaphors help in the learning process: concretizing, assimilation, and structurizing. Each of the theories was outlined along with its theoretical and empirical support. These three theories were shown to predict different patterns of inferences and errors in solving problems. In an experiment using metaphors as teaching aids in university lectures in applied statistics, posttests were used to probe the distinct pattern of predictions made by each theory. The results supported structurizing over concretizing in that very general inferences were made by the students taught with metaphors. Structurizing was also favored over assimilation theory because these general inferences were made without the intrusion of technical errors predicted by assimilation theory. Implications of the results for human information processing and education are discussed.
Assimilation (phonology)
Empirical Research
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RESEARCH is reviewed relevant to understanding the conditions in which elaborative inferences are made, with a particular concern for the implications for schema-theoretic notions of comprehension. Several studies using recognition and cued recall paradigms have suggested that instruments implied by verbs and specific instances of general terms are extensively inferred during comprehension. This evidence has been interpreted as reflecting the filling of slots in schematic structures with default options. However, the efficacy of memory paradigms for studying comprehension processes has been challenged. Recent evidence from methods that assess processing during comprehension suggests that elaborative inferences are made only in very limited contexts. In light of these recent empirical findings and current theoretical developments within the field of artificial intelligence, it seems that a more dynamic view of the activation and utilization of the knowledge base is emerging. The implications for future research are considered in the context of the general issue of elaborative processes in memory.
Schema (genetic algorithms)
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Instructors of personality assessment are challenged with teaching students how to execute the tacit thinking skills necessary to make sound test interpretations. The author provides a concrete tool for teaching students how to make interpretive inferences from verbal personality test data utilizing the construct of verbal abstract reasoning. Applied specifically to Thematic Apperception Test interpretation, the author discusses how the construct of verbal abstract reasoning can be utilized: as a model for providing explicit instruction on the implicit process of drawing inferences in test interpretation; for grounding students in data when constructing interpretations and avoiding making overpersonalized interpretations; as a means of basing interpretations on a convergence of data; as a means of gauging the level of confidence one can place in interpretations; and for understanding inferences drawn from other tests, such as the Rorschach.
Rorschach test
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