Future crop production threatened by extreme heat
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Abstract:
Heat is considered to be a major stress limiting crop growth and yields. While important findings on the impact of heat on crop yield have been made based on experiments in controlled environments, little is known about the effects under field conditions at larger scales. The study of Deryng et al (2014 Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures Environ. Res. Lett. 9 034011), analysing the impact of heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soya bean under climate change, represents an important contribution to this emerging research field. Uncertainties in the occurrence of heat stress under field conditions, plant responses to heat and appropriate adaptation measures still need further investigation.Keywords:
Extreme heat
Limiting
Crop Production
Extreme Weather
Climate change is bringing more extreme weather events, which disrupt the normal functioning of cities and threaten people's lives. The public and city managers need to know the potential change that their cities would experience to better adapt it for sustainable development, which requires better communication of climate information to non-professionals. This study quantified the changes in extreme heat and extreme precipitation in 369 cities in mainland China under 2.0 °C global warming, and a climate-analog mapping was used to visualize the expected climate state in the future of a specific city would be similar to which city's contemporary state. Our results show that 17 % of cities would reach new extreme heat states, and 65 % of cities are becoming hotter. For extreme precipitation, 64 % of northern cities would move southward by an average of 530 km, and 21 % of southern cities would join the contemporary extreme precipitation zones. Specifically, super-large cities with populations larger than 5 million would experience more intense changes, with an average 10 %-40 % greater increases in extreme heat and extreme precipitation than that of all cities. Under significant challenges, identifying similar contemporary cities and learning from their experiences can help managers and public make better preparations to better adapt to changes in extreme weather states.
Extreme Weather
Extreme heat
Mainland
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Extreme weather events present significant global threats to health. The National Ambulance Syndromic Surveillance System collects data on 18 syndromes through chief presenting complaint (CPC) codes. We aimed to determine the utility of ambulance data to monitor extreme temperature events for action. Daily total calls were observed between 01/01/2018–30/04/2019. Median daily ’Heat/Cold’ CPC calls during “known extreme temperature” (identified a priori), “extreme temperature”; (within 5th or 95th temperature percentiles for central England) and meteorological alert periods were compared to all other days using Wilcoxon signed-rank test. During the study period, 12,585,084 calls were recorded. In 2018, median daily “Heat/Cold” calls were higher during periods of known extreme temperature: heatwave (16/day, 736 total) and extreme cold weather events (28/day, 339 total) compared to all other days in 2018 (6/day, 1672 total). Median daily “Heat/Cold” calls during extreme temperature periods (16/day) were significantly higher than non-extreme temperature periods (5/day, p < 0.001). Ambulance data can be used to identify adverse impacts during periods of extreme temperature. Ambulance data are a low resource, rapid and flexible option providing real-time data on a range of indicators. We recommend ambulance data are used for the surveillance of presentations to healthcare related to extreme temperature events.
Extreme Weather
Extreme Cold
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Cold weather
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Summertime heat stress future projections from multi-model mean of 18 CMIP5 models show unprecedented increasing levels in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios over India. The estimated heat stress is found to have more impact on the coastal areas of India having exposure to more frequent days of extreme caution to danger category along with the increased probability of occurrence. The explicit amount of change in temperature, increase in the duration and intensity of warm days along with the modulation in large scale circulation in future are seemingly connected to the increasing levels of heat stress over India. A decline of 30 to 40% in the work performance is projected over India by the end of the century due to the elevated heat stress levels which pose great challenges to the country policy makers to design the safety mechanisms and to protect people working under continuous extreme hot weather conditions.
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How to adapt to extreme weather events such as extreme high temperature,hard rain caused by climate change in cities is an urgent and realistic issue.The change trend of summer high temperature was analyzed for Ji'nan city with summer average temperature and annual extreme maximum air temperature during 1970-2012.It is shown that both of them had an obvious rising trend in last 43a,and frequency of extreme high temperature which was above 40.0℃ increased rapidly since 1997.In order to improve adaptation of Ji'nan city to extreme high temperature,the government was suggested to make some adaptive measures,e.g.,to build 3-horizontal and 3-vertical and 2-circular green space network,to control urban size,to fufill the transit metropolis strategy and perfect high temperature warning system.
Extreme Weather
Extreme heat
Urban Heat Island
Heat wave
Climate Change Adaptation
Apparent temperature
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Lately extreme weather event is occurring because of the global warming. Especially disaster due to the extreme heat are increasing but the definition and the standard of the extreme heat is obscure until now. So this study established the extreme heat standard by using the number of daily deaths. As a result, considering the climate of the megalopolis using daily maximum heat index and daily maximum temperature was the best for the standard of the extreme heat. And it showed that extreme heat lasted for 2 days affects the death toll the most. The regional incidence of the extreme heat is highest at August and July, September and June is following.
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Extreme Cold
Extreme Weather
Death toll
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A formalized education program and the Botsball device to measure the wet bulb temperature provided the difference under field conditions between a control group of 220 military reservists with 9.1% heat casualties, and a study group of 306 with 4.2% heat casualties in a hot/humid environment. The latter group received specific schedules for water intake and work/rest cycles dependent upon measured heat stress. Guidelines for activity and the Botsball in adverse environments can reduce the number of casualties due to weather.
Heat illness
Extreme heat
Hot weather
Wet-bulb temperature
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Climate emergency: Health sector must prepare for
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Health sector
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Many cities are experiencing persistent risk in China due to frequent extreme weather events. Some extreme weather events, such as extreme heat hazard, have seriously threatened human health and socio-economic development in cities. There is an urgent need to measure the degree of extreme heat risk and identify cites with the highest levels of extreme heat risk. In this study, we presented a risk assessment framework of extreme heat and considered risk as a combination of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Based on these three dimensions, we selected relevant variables from historical meteorological data (1960–2016) and socioeconomic statistics in 2016, establishing an indicator system of extreme heat risk evaluation. Finally, we developed an extreme heat risk index to quantify the levels of extreme heat risk of 296 prefecture-level cities in China and revealed the spatial pattern of extreme heat risk in China in 2016 and their dominant factors. The results show that (1) cities with high levels of extreme heat hazard are mainly located in the south of China, especially in the southeast of China; (2) the spatial distribution of the extreme heat risk index shows obvious agglomeration characteristics; (3) the spatial distribution of the extreme heat risk is still mostly controlled by natural geographical conditions such as climate and topography; (4) among the four types of hazard-dominated, exposure-dominated, vulnerability-dominated, and low risk cities, the number of vulnerability-dominated cities is the largest. The results of this study can provide support for the risk management of extreme heat disasters and the formation of targeted countermeasures in China.
Extreme Weather
Extreme heat
Vulnerability
Heat index
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Under climate change, extreme heat events are projected to become more frequent and intense. With people spending approximately 90% for their time indoors and buildings having long lifetimes, it is important that the built environment is resilient to these changes. Current methods to assess building performance in a future climate typically use morphed weather files and annual metrics. We compare 30 metrics and 2 weather data sources to assess and improve the representation of extreme heat events in building simulation. We show that morphing an extreme observed year may not necessarily result in an equally extreme year under the future climate and that current annual metrics do not correlate well with heatwave severity. We suggest that weather data from climate models is more robust in representing future weather for the UK and explore the recent UKCP18 data. We propose novel metrics which are able to capture heatwave severity inside buildings.
Overheating (electricity)
Extreme heat
Extreme Weather
Morphing
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