Estimation of permafrost thawing rates in a sub-arctic catchment using recession flow analysis
Steve W. LyonGeorgia DestouniReiner GieslerChristoph HumborgMagnus MörthJan SeibertJan KarlssonPeter Troch
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Abstract. Permafrost thawing is likely to change the flow pathways taken by water as it moves through arctic and sub-arctic landscapes. The location and distribution of these pathways directly influence the carbon and other biogeochemical cycling in northern latitude catchments. While permafrost thawing due to climate change has been observed in the arctic and sub-arctic, direct observations of permafrost depth are difficult to perform at scales larger than a local scale. Using recession flow analysis, it may be possible to detect and estimate the rate of permafrost thawing based on a long-term streamflow record. We demonstrate the application of this approach to the sub-arctic Abiskojokken catchment in northern Sweden. Based on recession flow analysis, we estimate that permafrost in this catchment may be thawing at an average rate of about 0.9 cm/yr during the past 90 years. This estimated thawing rate is consistent with direct observations of permafrost thawing rates, ranging from 0.7 to 1.3 cm/yr over the past 30 years in the region.Keywords:
Biogeochemical Cycle
Describes use of air temperatures to determine permafrost presence for engineering purposes. Annual mean temperature and thawing index (a yearly summation of daily mean temperature over 32 F) in 61 localities of northern Canada were compared with reported permafrost occurrences. The latter are divided into four categories: free of permafrost; discontinuous permafrost; continuous permafrost in forest, and in tundra. Correlations were found in all but twelve of the localities; the latter are considered individually and in some, permafrost was uncertain.
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Information on river flows is essential for water resources management. Most of the Brazilian small watersheds is ungauged. Regionalization of hydrologic information is an alternative way to get this lacking information. The regionalization models, however, are a simplified representation of natural phenomena, what could lead to miscalculation. Therefore, these models should be tested before being used as a management tool. This paper evaluates the performance of the regionalization models created for the Santa Barbara River Basin region, in Goias. This river basin is located between 17o45’ and 18o15’ South and 49o36’ and 50o03’ West and has a catchment area of 1371,16 km2. The models estimate average streamflow, maximum streamflow, minimum streamflow, the 95% duration streamflow, the seven day, ten years, minimum streamflow and the monthly-average streamflows. The tested streamflow regionalization models proved to be good enough for average flows, but not for maximum and minimum events. The models based on homogeneous regions were superior to those that ignored that aspect. The model that uses drainage area and density to estimate the 95% duration streamflow could be used in water resources management with little error. The use of this model would better represent the water availability at Santa Barbara River Basin than a few local measurements currently used.
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Both sensitivity-based method and simulation method are used to analyze the streamflow response to climate variability and human activities in the upper catchment of the Yellow River Basin (UYRB) in this study. The separation regime of effects from climate variability and human activities is investigated. Results show that the changes of streamflow are more sensitive to precipitation than potential evapotranspiration (PET). Effect of climate variability on streamflow estimated using the sensitivity-based method is weak in the upper catchment of Jimai station, and strong in the upper catchment of Lanzhou station, where the climate effects accounted for about 50% of total streamflow changes. Effects of human activities on streamflow accounted for about 40% in the UYRB, with weaker effects in the upper catchment of Tangnaihai station than those in the upper catchment of Lanzhou station. Both climate variability and human activities are main factors to affect the changes of streamflow in the UYRB.
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Abstract Ground thermal conditions in marginal permafrost in Mongolia were assessed using ground temperatures measured year‐round at 69 borehole sites. Permafrost is continuous in northern Mongolia and exists as sporadic/isolated patches in the south. Ground temperatures are strongly controlled by local environmental factors, such as topographic depressions that concentrate cold air during winter, ice‐rich strata that prevent penetration of sensible heat, and tree cover that reduces incident solar radiation. Permafrost temperatures are typically between −1 and 0°C; colder permafrost (< −2°C) occurs in the northern extent of continuous permafrost and at high elevations in the sporadic/isolated permafrost zones. Relict permafrost, which is thermally disconnected from seasonal air temperature fluctuations, is present near the latitudinal and elevational limits of perennially frozen ground. Cold and thermally responsive permafrost is dominant in the continuous and discontinuous zones, while warm and thermally unresponsive permafrost is dominant in the sporadic and isolated zones. Overall, the climate‐driven permafrost in the colder regions is stable, while the ecosystem‐driven permafrost in the warmer regions is degrading.
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Using continuous data obtained from 17 monitoring sites, the permafrost temperature profiles and the depths of zero annual amplitude (DZAA) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are examined. Permafrost thermal trumpet curves are generally narrow and the DZAAs are generally shallow in warm permafrost regions, especially at sites where the permafrost temperature is close to 0 °C. The observed DZAAs in warm permafrost regions are indeed generally less than 7.0 m and for three sites less than 4.0 m. In low-temperature permafrost areas, the situation is reversed: the thermal trumpet curves are generally wide and the DZAAs are generally deep. Theoretical and numerical analyses clearly show there is a causal relationship between permafrost warming and the decrease of the DZAA. Latent heat effects are buffering the increase of permafrost temperature and result in narrow thermal trumpet curves and shallow DZAAs. Based on observations and numerical analyses, this research suggests that most of the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is undergoing internal thaw and the latent heat effects have important implications on the permafrost thermal regime. The temperature-dependent adjustments in permafrost will promote both the downward and upward degradation of permafrost as a result of climate warming.
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Radium isotope fingerprinting of permafrost ‐ applications to thawing and intra‐permafrost processes
Abstract Permafrost in circum‐polar regions has been recently undergoing thawing, with severe environmental consequences, including the release of greenhouse gases and amplification of global warming. Although highly important, direct methods of tracking thawing hardly exist. In a research study conducted at Adventdalen, Svalbard, we identified a permafrost radioisotope fingerprint, and show that it can be used to track thawing. Ratios of long‐ to the shorter‐lived radium isotopes are higher in ground ice than in active layer water, which we attribute to the permafrost closed system and possibly to the long residence time of ground ice in the permafrost. Also, daughter–parent 224 Ra/ 228 Ra ratios are lower in permafrost than in the active layer. These fingerprints were also identified in a local stream, confirming the applicability of this tool to tracing thawed permafrost in periglacial watersheds. A combination of radium isotope ratios and 3 H allowed the identification of recent intra‐permafrost segregation processes. The permafrost radium fingerprint should be applicable to other permafrost areas, which could assist in regional quantification of the extent of permafrost thawing and carbon emissions to the atmosphere.
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