Containing Pandemic Influenza at the Source
Ira M. LonginiAzhar NizamShufu XuKumnuan UngchusakWanna HanshaoworakulDerek A. T. CummingsM. Elizabeth Halloran
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Abstract:
Highly pathogenic avian influenza A (subtype H5N1) is threatening to cause a human pandemic of potentially devastating proportions. We used a stochastic influenza simulation model for rural Southeast Asia to investigate the effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, quarantine, and pre-vaccination in containing an emerging influenza strain at the source. If the basic reproductive number ( R 0 ) was below 1.60, our simulations showed that a prepared response with targeted antivirals would have a high probability of containing the disease. In that case, an antiviral agent stockpile on the order of 100,000 to 1 million courses for treatment and prophylaxis would be sufficient. If pre-vaccination occurred, then targeted antiviral prophylaxis could be effective for containing strains with an R 0 as high as 2.1. Combinations of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, pre-vaccination, and quarantine could contain strains with an R 0 as high as 2.4.Keywords:
Pandemic
Pandemic influenza
Highly pathogenic
Earlier this month, an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in several Dutch poultry farms was reported. Extensive control measures to prevent spread to unaffected poultry farms have been implemented (1).
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A human fatality has been reported from the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A H7N7, which has been ongoing in the Netherlands since the end of February and which has caused a standstill to that country’s poultry industry.
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Introduction: Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 was first reported in poultry in Nigeria in February 2006. The only human case that occurred was linked to contact with poultry in a live bird market (LBM). LBM surveillance was instituted to assess the degree of threat of human exposure to H5N1. The key indicator was detection of H5N1 in LBMs. We evaluated the surveillance system to assess its operations and attributes.
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H5 and H7 subtypes are associated with the highly pathogenic form of AI (HPAI), which are extremely virulent, causing up to 100% mortality in domestic poultry. This virulence and ability to cause systemic infection have been attributed to the multibasic cleavage motif in their hemagglutinin molecule, which are recognized by subtilisin-like endoproteases that are virtually present in every tissue, making them capable of replicating in multiple tissue; hence, lesions are multisystemic (i.e., nervous, circulatory, respiratory, integumentary, musculoskeletal, hemopoietic, gastrointestinal, reproductive systems). The myriads of lesion that accompanied outbreaks of HPAI in domestic poultry as seen in Nigeria from 2006 to 2016 are as a result of the above findings. A critical look at the Nigerian HPAI situation not only revealed the general clinic-pathologic features in domestic poultry and factors that support the persistence of the virus in the environment but also gave insight to the flow of the virus in the country. A situation whereby poultry are kept in free-range, multispecies, multiage holdings with low biosecurity supports the spread of HPAI. Also, the live bird markets (LBMs) that have been fed by this unorganized poultry structure have consistently been the nidus for HPAI detection, be it in 2008 after the virus was thought to have been eradicated or in 2015, when the virus resurfaced in Lagos. It is proposed that all factors enhancing the propensity of the virus to remain in poultry should be giving the attention required. Therefore, it is important that the strict biosecurity measures that ensure prevention of HPAI incursion into poultry premises after 2008 are revamped while improving on the organization of the poultry and product supply chain in the country.
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Backyard poultry farms infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus inNigeria between 2006 and 2008 were investigated for morbidity, mortality and Pathology.Affected farms raised local chickens, duck, turkey, guinea fowl and geese and were already confirmed to be infected with HPAI virus by virus isolation and reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction at the National Veterinary Research Institute, Vom Nigeria.Backyard local chickens recorded the highest number of death with 89.4% of the total flock size while the duck had the highest mortality rate at 87.1%.Mortality rate was least in guinea fowls (20.55%), and above average in geese (54.64%).For Pathology, submitted carcasses comprised of sixty ( 60) chickens, twenty-nine ( 29) ducks, thirty-seven (37) turkeys, fourteen ( 14) guinea fowls and twelve ( 12) geese which were examined for gross morphological changes and histopathology.Though lesions sparingly occurred in these village poultry, main pathologic findings were associated with the nervous, circulatory, respiratory, and gastro-intestinal systems and occasionally lesions were general unspecific and multi-systemic.It was observed that mortality rate was highest in duck, then chicken and turkey compared to guinea fowl and geese while lesions were milder and mortality were acute in these flocks.
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Since the later part of June 2007, three European Union (EU) Member States (Czech Republic, Germany, and France) have recorded cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) of the subtype A/H5N1 in bird populations.
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Introduction: Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 was first reported in poultry in Nigeria in February 2006. The only human case that occurred was linked to contact with poultry in a live bird market (LBM). LBM surveillance was instituted to assess the degree of threat of human exposure to H5N1. The key indicator was detection of H5N1 in LBMs. We evaluated the surveillance system to assess its operations and attributes.
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mixing and reduced travel, and possibly viral interference between SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus in the same host.In general, the reduction in influenza detections however does not appear to be associated with lack of testing.The World Health Organisation (WHO) continues to recommend that vaccination is the most effective way to prevent infection and severe outcomes caused by influenza viruses.Although influenza vaccine is not commonly used in most countries in South-East Asia, its burden is similar in other parts of the world where influenza vaccine is now routinely used.Currently, the countries in South-East Asia that are providing free influenza vaccination for those at high risk include Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines and Lao People's Democratic Republic.
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Since the beginning of November 2014, nine outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) A(H5N8) in poultry have been detected in four European countries. In this report, similarities and differences between the modes of introduction of HPAIV A(H5N1) and A(H5N8) into Europe are described. Experiences from outbreaks of A(H5N1) in Europe demonstrated that early detection to control HPAIV in poultry has proven pivotal to minimise the risk of zoonotic transmission and prevention of human cases.
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Introduction: highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus H5N1 kills up to 90 - 100% of domestic fowl flock during outbreaks globally. This study, conducted from January 8, 2015 to August 6, 2015, aimed to assess the space-time distribution pattern of the re-emergence of HPAI H5N1 in Nigeria.
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