Impact of changes in land use in the flow of the Pará River Basin, MG
Evandro Luís Linhari RodriguesMarcos Antônio Timbó ElmiroFrancisco de Assis BragaClaudia Maria JacobiRafael D. Rossi
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Plant cover plays an essential role in the maintenance and balance of the hydrological cycle, performing functions in the control of water availability, which guarantee flow permanence. The use of mathematical models is an alternative to represent the hydrological system and help in the understanding of phenomena involving the variables of the water cycle, in order to anticipate and predict impacts from potential changes in land use. In the present study, the hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to analyse the dynamics of flow and water flow in the Pará River Basin, Minas Gerais, Brazil, aiming to evaluate the impact caused by changes in land use in water availability. The adjusted model was assessed by the coefficient of efficiency of Nash-Sutcliffe (between -0.057 to -0.059), indicating high correlation and coefficient of residual mass (0.757 to 0.793) and therefore a satisfactory fit. An increase of about 10% in the basin flow was estimated, as a function of changes in land use, when simulating the removal of the original 'Cerrado' vegetation and of the seasonal semideciduous forest for pasture implementation in 38% of the basin.Keywords:
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Abstract This study quantitatively explores whether land cover changes have a substantive impact on simulated streamflow within the tropical island setting of P uerto R ico. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System ( PRMS ) was used to compare streamflow simulations based on five static parameterizations of land cover with those based on dynamically varying parameters derived from four land cover scenes for the period 1953‐2012. The PRMS simulations based on static land cover illustrated consistent differences in simulated streamflow across the island. It was determined that the scale of the analysis makes a difference: large regions with localized areas that have undergone dramatic land cover change may show negligible difference in total streamflow, but streamflow simulations using dynamic land cover parameters for a highly altered subwatershed clearly demonstrate the effects of changing land cover on simulated streamflow. Incorporating dynamic parameterization in these highly altered watersheds can reduce the predictive uncertainty in simulations of streamflow using PRMS . Hydrologic models that do not consider the projected changes in land cover may be inadequate for water resource management planning for future conditions.
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