Unemployment as excess supply of labor: Implications for wage and price inflation
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New Keynesian economics
Market clearing
Price setting
For standard calibration, this paper shows that the optimal price, in a model with Calvo form of price stickiness and strategic complementarities, is only defined for annualised trend inflation rates of under 5.5%. This critical inflation rate is below the average inflation rate over recent decades. Furthermore, over the range for which the optimal price is defined, the slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve generated by this model is decreasing in trend inflation. That contradicts the stylised fact that Phillips curves are flatter in low-inflation environments. Substituting endogenous price stickiness for the Calvo form of time-dependent pricing can help avoid these implications.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
New Keynesian economics
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In this paper, we examine the hybrid specification of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) proposed by Gali and Gertler (1999) by employing recently developed momentconditions inference procedures. These methods provide a more efficient and reliable econometric framework for the analysis of the NKPC. In particular, we address the issue of parameter identification, providing robust estimates and confidence sets for the model’s parameters. Our results show that the NKPC remains a valid and reliable empirical tool to explain inflation dynamics.
New Keynesian economics
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Indirect Inference
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The New Keynesian Phillips Curve has become an important part of modern monetary policy models. It describes the relationship between inflation and real marginal cost, which is derived from micro-founded models with rational expectations, sticky prices, and forward and backward looking behaviour. This answers the previous critique of the Phillips Curve. We estimate several specifications of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the Czech Republic between 1996 and 2009. We show that the GMM suffers under the problem of weak instruments leading to biased estimates. In turn, the FIML is robust and yields significant estimates of structural parameters implying a strong forward looking behaviour.
New Keynesian economics
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1 Introduction . 10 2 Alternative models for optimal price setting 16 2.1 Basic model with endogenous supply 17 2.2 Optimal price setting models . 21 2.2.1 Optimal price setting with fully flexible prices 21 2.2.2 Optimal non-overlapping price setting with nominal rigidities . 23 2.2.3 Optimal overlapping price setting with nominal rigidities . 26 3 Three Phillips curve relationships 28 3.1 The New Classical Phillips curve 29 3.2 The New Keynesian Phillips curve 31 3.3 The Hybrid Phillips curve 34 4 Related studies 36 5 Review of the articles 41 References 44
New Keynesian economics
Price setting
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This paper extends Calvo's (1983) time-dependent pricing model to incorporate state-dependent features in pricing, while preserving tractability. The pricing scheme delivers a generalized New Keynesian Phillips curve with an explicit role for the frequency of price revisions. The novel feature shows that inflation responds to movements of relative prices and to endogenous fluctuations in the average frequency of price adjustment. The model offers, therefore, a microfounded rationale for systematic deviations in the inflation- marginal cost relation predicted by the new Keynesian Phillips curve. As a byproduct, the model determines endogenously the short-run slope of the Phillips curve. Simulations predict weaker responses of output and stronger responses of inflation to technology, preference and monetary shocks than those of a close time-dependent model.
New Keynesian economics
Price setting
State dependent
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The New Keynesian Phillips Curve has become an important part of modern monetary policy models. It describes the relationship between inflation and real marginal cost, which is derived from micro-founded models with rational expectations, sticky prices, and forward and backward looking behaviour. This answers the previous critique of the Phillips Curve. We estimate several specifications of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the Czech Republic between 1996 and 2009. We show that the GMM suffers under the problem of weak instruments leading to biased estimates. In turn, the FIML is robust and yields significant estimates of structural parameters implying a strong forward looking behaviour.
New Keynesian economics
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This paper extends Calvo's (1983) time-dependent pricing model to incorporate state-dependent features in pricing, while preserving tractability. The pricing scheme delivers a generalized New Keynesian Phillips curve with an explicit role for the frequency of price revisions. The novel feature shows that inflation responds to movements of relative prices and to endogenous fluctuations in the average frequency of price adjustment. The model offers, therefore, a microfounded rationale for systematic deviations in the inflation- marginal cost relation predicted by the new Keynesian Phillips curve. As a byproduct, the model determines endogenously the short-run slope of the Phillips curve. Simulations predict weaker responses of output and stronger responses of inflation to technology, preference and monetary shocks than those of a close time-dependent model.
New Keynesian economics
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State dependent
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This paper proposes a tractable financial accelerator New Keynesian DSGE model that allows for closed-form solutions. In the presence of financial frictions, the New Keynesian Phillips curve features a flat slope with respect to the output gap and is strongly forward-looking. All shocks cause endogenous cost-push effects in the Phillips curve, leading to larger in inflation responses and a breakdown of divine coincidence. The central bank's contemporaneous trade-off between output gap and in inflation stabilization is aggravated. Optimal monetary policy is strongly forward-looking and geared towards inflation stabilization.
New Keynesian economics
Output gap
Financial accelerator
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We experimentally test the price-setting behavior of firms in the Rotemberg (1982) model in order to explain puzzles in the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). By constructing categories and a quantitative measure that compare behavior with optimum we find heterogeneous price-setting behavior by degree of information acquired about the future. Subjects rarely use past information, but overweight their own past price. We study the impact of heterogeneous price-setting behavior on estimated theoretically derived and hybrid Phillips curves. We find support for features of both NKPCs in our findings at the micro level. But the hybrid NKPC has a superior fit.
New Keynesian economics
Price setting
Degree (music)
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We review single-equation methods for estimating the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) and then apply those methods to U.S. quarterly data for 1955–2007. Estimating the hybrid NKPC by the generalized method of moments yields stable coefficients with a large role for expected future inflation. Measures of marginal costs better explain U.S. inflation than does a range of measures of the output gap. But estimates of the slope of the NKPC are imprecise and confidence intervals that are robust to weak identification are wide. Further research on measuring marginal costs may reconcile these mixed findings. A reconciliation is important if the NKPC is to remain a fundamental component of models of the monetary transmission mechanism.
New Keynesian economics
Output gap
Structural estimation
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