Climate Change, Risk and Grain Production in China
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This paper employs the production function-based method proposed by Just and Pope (1978, 1979) to explicitly analyze production risk in the context of Chinese grain farming and climate change, and test for potential endogeneity of climate factors in Chinese grain production. Our results indicate that grain production in south China might, at least in the short run, could be a net beneficiary of global warming. In particular, we find that a 1 °C increase in annual average temperature in South China could entail an increase of grain output by 3.79 million tons or an economic benefit of around USD 798 million due to the increasing mean output. However the impact of global warming in north China is negative, small and insignificant. In addition, Hausman tests reveal no endogeneity of climate variables in Chinese grain production.Keywords:
Endogeneity
Beneficiary
In this study, we examine the relationship between climate change and food productivity using empirical econometric methods.The existing literature shows that natural hazard caused by climate change has a negative impact on food productivity since the natural disaster devastates farmers and food supply.The conventional study however considered only the correlation between food productivity change and climate condition such as optimum air temperature rather than the association between food productivity and climate change.Agricultural area, crop per unit area and crop productivity are known as the most important factors in food productivity.Thus, we explore the relationship between the three factors and climate change.We analyze the carbon dioxide concentration level in the atmosphere as a proxy for the climate change since the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere affects global temperature.We found that agricultural area, crop per unit area and crop productivity are negatively associated with climate change.
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Abstract This paper intends to estimate the potential impact of climate change on Taiwan's agricultural sector. Yield response regression models are used to investigate the climate change's impact on 60 crops. A price‐endogenous mathematical programming model is then used to simulate the welfare impacts of yield changes under various climate change scenarios. Results suggest that both warming and climate variations have a significant but non‐monotonic impact on crop yields. Society as a whole would not suffer from warming, but a precipitation increase may be devastating to farmers.
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During the 20th century, increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) causes average surface temperature to increase by 0.74℃ and causes the extent of climate change impacts more severe. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) pointed out that global economic loss of crops, fishery, water resources, and human health induced by climate change in the period of 1991-2005 is approximately US$1,190 billion. Furthermore, according to OECD-FAO 2011-2020 Agricultural outlook, price volatility is driven by a multitude of factors. The most frequent and significant factor causing volatility is the unpredictable weather condition. Climate change is altering weather pattern, however, its impact on extreme weather events is not clear.
The objective of this study is to examine how climatic factors influence crop yield distribution and to predict the degree of climate change inducing variations in crop yield distribution in the future. The first step is to combine the Crop Yield Model estimated results and climate factors data predicted from five climate models (that is, hadcm3, MIROC3_2_MEDRES, ECHAM5,CSIRO-MK30, and CNRM_CM3), and with the assumption of IPCC (2007) A1B scenario. This study makes use of the Just-Pope production function (Just and Pope, 1978, 1979) to investigate how climate factors affect the mean and variability of crop yield. The data set used in this study is the GTAP database Version 7 that refers to the base year 2004. The database provides disaggregated data with 113 regions and 57 sectors.
Data on yield, crop planted area, and national agricultural area is from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation (FAO), and the period of data ranges from 1961 to 2009. The data on precipitation and temperature use the main related crop region in each ten major production countries as representations from USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis. The temperature data contains the mean and variance ob...
HadCM3
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Agricultural activities contribute to global climate change, and crop production will be affected if and when climate changes. Despite substantial yield effects of climate change, the economic effect on national and world economies is estimated to be small, as reduced production potential in some areas is balanced by gains in others. A slight increase in world output and a decline in commodity prices are estimated under a moderate climate change impact scenario. There remain major uncertainties in estimating future emissions of greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change, costs of controlling climate change, and the effects of climate change on society.
Ecological forecasting
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Increasingly, empirical evidences are substantiating the effects of climate change on agricultural production is a reality. In the early part of the 20th century many were skeptical about the so-called climate change that is due to global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) defines climate change as follows: “climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean or variability of its properties and that persists for extended periods, typically decades or longer” This study analyses the impact of climate change on cereals production (millet and maize) in the Gambia using a time series data for a period of 46 years (1960 – 2013) at an aggregate level to assess the relationship between climate (temperatures and rainfall,) and non-climate variables fertilizer, area planted respectively and yield. The specific objectives of the research are: (1) How climate change affects the expected cereals (Millet and Maize) output or yield in the Gambia. (2) How the level of output risk within cereals (Millet and Maize) farming is affected? In order to achieve these set objectives, the paper will adopt Just and Pope modified Ricardian production functions for climate change impact assessments (e.g., Chen et al. 2004), the paper will also control for the impacts of regular input factors in the production process. The study used a data set for the Gambia comprising variables relevant for cereals production and climate information from 1960 through 2013. There is strong evidence that climate will affects Maize and Millet; according to the analysis 77% and 44% of the variability in the yield of Maize and Millet respectively is explained by the climate and non-climate variables included in the model. Given the effects of climate variables on cereals production, and increasing climate change vulnerabilities on other food production section, the result of this paper will add voice to the growing call for policy makers to step up funding in research and development in climate change adaptation and mitigation.
JEL classification: Q54
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This research combined global climate, crop and economic models to examine the economic impact of climate change-induced loss of agricultural productivity in Pakistan. Previous studies conducted systematic model inter-comparisons, but results varied widely due to differences in model approaches, research scenarios and input data. This paper extends that analysis in the case of Pakistan by taking yield decline output of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) for CERES-Wheat, CERES-Rice and Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) crop models as an input in the global economic model to evaluate the economic effects of climate change-induced loss of crop production by 2050. Results showed that climate change-induced loss of wheat and rice crop production by 2050 is 19.5 billion dollars on Pakistan’s Real Gross Domestic Product coupled with an increase in commodity prices followed by a notable decrease in domestic private consumption. However, the decline in the crops’ production not only affects the economic agents involved in the agriculture sector of the country, but it also has a multiplier effect on industrial and business sectors. A huge rise in commodity prices will create a great challenge for the livelihood of the whole country, especially for urban households. It is recommended that the government should have a sound agricultural policy that can play a role in influencing its ability to adapt successfully to climate change as adaption is necessary for high production and net returns of the farm output.
DSSAT
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Drawing on the method developed by Just and Pope (1978, 1979), this paper separately analyzes the marginal contributions of both regular input factors and climate factors to mean output and to production risk in Chinese inland aquaculture. Furthermore, the net change in output following a 1°C increase in annual average temperature will be determined. According to the results obtained, the impending changes in global climate will have both positive and negative impacts. While an increment in annual average temperatures will increase mean output and decrease production risk, an increase in temperature variability will reduce mean output and cause a higher level of production risk. The corresponding measures of precipitation however have no significant impact on mean output and production risk. Finally, a 1°C increase in annual average temperature is, ceteris paribus, likely to increase national mean output by 1.47 million tons.
Ceteris paribus
Mean radiant temperature
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No AccessPolicy Research Working Papers22 Jun 2013Changing Farm Types And Irrigation As An Adaptation To Climate Change In Latin American AgricultureAuthors/Editors: Robert Mendelsohn, Niggol SeoRobert Mendelsohn, Niggol Seohttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4161SectionsAboutPDF (0.4 MB) ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack Citations ShareFacebookTwitterLinked In Abstract:This paper estimates a model of a farm that treats the choice of crops, livestock, and irrigation as endogenous. The model is composed of a multinomial choice of farm type, a binomial choice of irrigation, and a set of conditional land value functions. The model is estimated across over 2,000 farmers in seven Latin America countries. The results quantify how farmers adapt their choice of farm type and irrigation to their local climate. The results should help governments develop effective adaptation policies in response to climate change and improve the forecasting of climate effects. The paper compares the predicted effects of climate change using both endogenous and exogenous models of farm choice. Previous bookNext book FiguresReferencesRecommendedDetailsCited ByClimate Sensitivity of Groundwater Systems in South India: Does It Matter for Agricultural Income?22 October 2021Long-term migration trends and rising temperatures: the role of irrigationJournal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Vol.10931 October 2021Climate variability, crop and conflict: Exploring the impacts of spatial concentration in agricultural productionJournal of Peace Research, Vol.58, No.128 January 2021Use of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System on Agroforestry Ecosystem in Himalayan Region of Uttarakhand4 March 2020Autonomous adaptations to climate change and rice productivity: a case study of the Tanahun district, NepalClimate and Development, Vol.11, No.76 May 2018Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity, and Farmers' Response in India's North-East16 June 2018Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity, and Farmers' Response in India's North-East12 May 2017Modelos de impacto en la agricultura teniendo en cuenta los escenarios de la agricultura del cambio climáticoRevista Iberoamericana de Bioeconomía y Cambio Climático, Vol.1, No.116 October 2015Climate change, irrigation and agricultural activities in Mexico: A Ricardian analysis with panel dataJournal of Development and Agricultural Economics, Vol.7, No.731 July 2015Understanding the causes and consequences of differential decision-making in adaptation research: Adapting to a delayed monsoon onset in Gujarat, IndiaGlobal Environmental Change, Vol.31Irrigation as an adaptive strategy to climate change: an economic perspective on Brazilian agricultureEnvironment and Development Economics, Vol.20, No.11 April 2014The Ricardian analysis twenty years after the original model: Evolution, unresolved issues and empirical problemsJournal of Development and Agricultural Economics, Vol.6, No.331 March 2014Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Assessment on Food Consumption Utilizing a New Scenario FrameworkEnvironmental Science & Technology, Vol.48, No.111 December 2013Economic valuation of climate change adaptation in developing countriesAnnals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Vol.1185, No.129 January 2010Is Stern Review on Climate Change Alarmist?Energy & Environment, Vol.18, No.5 View Published: March 2007 Copyright & Permissions Related RegionsLatin America & CaribbeanRelated CountriesCzech RepublicTimor-LesteUruguayRelated TopicsAgricultureEnvironmentRural Development KeywordsCLIMATECLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGESCLIMATE IMPACTSFORESTRYIRRIGATIONLANDLAND USELAND VALUELESSMODELSPRECIPITATIONRAINFALLSOILSOILSTEMPERATUREVALUE FUNCTIONSVARIABLESWHOWORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION PDF DownloadLoading ...
Climate Change Adaptation
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This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. The analysis is based on cross-sectional climate, hydrological, soil, and household level data for a sample of 816 households, and uses a seasonal Ricardian model. Estimated marginal impacts of climate variables suggest that global warming is harmful for agricultural productivity and that changes in temperature are much more important than changes in precipitation. This result is confirmed by the predicted impact of various climate change scenarios on agriculture. The results further confirm that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. The authors analyze farmers' perceptions of climate variations and their adaptation to these, and also constraints on adaptation mechanisms. The results suggest that farmers in Kenya are aware of short-term climate change, that most of them have noticed an increase in temperatures, and that some have taken adaptive measures.
Kenya
Crop Productivity
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This study examines the impact of climate change on crop farming in Cameroon. The country's economy is predominantly agrarian and agriculture and the exploitation of natural resources remain the driving force for the country's economic development. Fluctuations in national income are due not merely to the decline in world demand for Cameroon's traditional agricultural exports or to mistakes in economic policy making, but also to the vagaries of the weather. Based on a farm-level survey of more than 800 farms, the study employs a Ricardian cross-sectional approach to measure the relationship between climate and the net revenue from crops. Net revenue is regressed on climate, water flow, soil, and economic variables. Further, uniform scenarios assume that only one aspect of climate changes and the change is uniform across the whole country. The analysis finds that net revenues fall as precipitation decreases or temperatures increase across all the surveyed farms. The study reaffirms that agriculture in Cameroon is often limited by seasonality and the availability of moisture. Although other physical factors, such as soil and relief, have an important influence on agriculture, climate remains the dominant influence on the variety of crops cultivated and the types of agriculture practiced.
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