Marine biodiversity and climate change: assessing and predicting the influence of climatic change using intertidal rocky shore biota
Nova MieszkowskaRebecca LeaperPippa J. MooreMA KendallMichael T. BurrowsDan LearElvira S. PoloczanskaKeith HiscockPS MoschellaRichard C. ThompsonRJ HerbertDaniel D'a. LaffoleyJ. M. BaxterAJ SouthwardSJ Hawkins
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Abstract The coastal waters surrounding Britain and Ireland became warmer during the 20th century and, according to the UK Climate Impact Programme 2002 scenarios of change and other sources, average annual seawater temperatures may rise a further 2°C or more by the 2050s. This warming is part of a global rise in sea‐ and air‐surface temperatures that will cause changes in the distribution and abundance of species. Initially, there will not be a wholesale movement northwards of southern species or retreat northwards of northern species, because many additional factors will influence the responses of the different organisms. Such factors include the hydrodynamic characteristics of water masses, the presence of hydrographical and geographical barriers to spread and the life history characteristics (reproductive mode, dispersal capability and longevity) of species. Survey data over the past century show how organisms react to changes of the order of 0.5°C, and in the last two decades, when sea temperatures have risen by as much as 1°C, there have been significant local changes in the distribution of intertidal organisms. These past changes provide a clue to more extensive changes expected in the future if global warming develops as predicted. Where species affected by climate change are dominant or key structural or functional species in biotopes, there may be a change in the extent and distribution of those biotopes. Some, dominated by predominantly northern species such as the horse mussel Modiolus modiolus , may decline and reduce their value as rich habitats for marine life. Others, characterized by southern species, for example the sea fan Eunicella verrucosa and the alcyonacean Alcyonium glomeratum , may increase in extent. Using information on the life history characteristics of species, their present distribution and other factors, a key supported by a decision tree has been constructed to identify ‘types’ of organism according to their likely response to temperature rise. Conspicuous and easily identified rocky substratum species are good candidates to track change. Using the key, many species are shown as likely to increase their range northwards significantly. In contrast, fewer will decline in abundance and extent in the north. If, as anticipated, global warming continues, then species with distributions already accurately mapped, or being mapped at present, will provide baseline data to test forecasts. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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We show that the distributions of both exploited and nonexploited North Sea fishes have responded markedly to recent increases in sea temperature, with nearly two-thirds of species shifting in mean latitude or depth or both over 25 years. For species with northerly or southerly range margins in the North Sea, half have shown boundary shifts with warming, and all but one shifted northward. Species with shifting distributions have faster life cycles and smaller body sizes than nonshifting species. Further temperature rises are likely to have profound impacts on commercial fisheries through continued shifts in distribution and alterations in community interactions.
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Long-term monitoring shows that the poleward range edges of intertidal biota have shifted by as much as 50 km per decade, faster than most recorded shifts of terrestrial species. Although most studies have concentrated on species-range edges, recent work emphasizes how modifying factors such as regional differences in the timing of low tide can overwhelm large-scale climatic gradients, leading to a mosaic of environmental stress. We discuss how changes in the mean and variability in climatic regimes, as modified by local and regional factors, can lead to complex patterns of species distribution rather than simple range shifts. We describe how ecological forecasting may be used to generate explicit hypotheses regarding the likely impacts of different climatic change scenarios on the distribution of intertidal species and how related hindcasting methods can be used to evaluate changes that have already been detected. These hypotheses can then be tested over a hierarchy of temporal and spatial scales using coupled field and laboratory-based approaches.
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Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.
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CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 37:123-133 (2008) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00768 Complex interactions in a rapidly changing world: responses of rocky shore communities to recent climate change S. J. Hawkins1,2, P. J. Moore1,3,*, M. T. Burrows4, E. Poloczanska5, N. Mieszkowska1, R. J. H. Herbert6, S. R. Jenkins2, R. C. Thompson3, M. J. Genner1,7, A. J. Southward1,† 1Marine Biological Association of the UK, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK 2School of Ocean Sciences, University of Wales Bangor, Menai Bridge, Anglesey LL59 5AB, UK 3Marine Biology and Ecology Research Centre, University of Plymouth, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK 4Scottish Association for Marine Science, Dunstaffnage Marine Laboratory, Oban PA37 1QA, UK 5Wealth from Oceans Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia 6School of Conservation Sciences, Bournemouth University, Talbot Campus, Fern Barrow, Poole BH12 5BB, UK 7School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1UG, UK *Corresponding author. Email: ppm@mba.ac.uk† Deceased ABSTRACT: Warming of the planet has accelerated in recent years and is predicted to continue over the next 50 to 100 yr. Evidence of responses to present warming in marine ecosystems include shifts in the geographic range of species as well as in the composition of pelagic and demersal fish, benthic and intertidal assemblages. Here we provide a review of the changes in geographic distributions and population abundance of species detected on rocky shores of the NE Atlantic over the last 60 yr. This period encompassed the warm 1950s, a colder period between 1963 and the late 1980s and the recent period of accelerating warming to levels above those of the 1950s. The likely consequences of these responses are then explored. To do this, a summary of the dynamic balance between grazers, macroalgae and barnacles in structuring mid-shore communities is given before outlining experimental work on interactions between key components of rocky shore communities. Modelling and quantitative forecasting were used to predict changes in community composition and dynamics in a warmer world and their consequences for ecosystem functioning discussed. We then identify areas that need further work before making a case for the use of rocky shore species not just as inexpensive indicators of change offshore, but as tractable models to explore the direct and indirect effects of climate change in marine and coastal ecosystems. We also provide a societal perspective emphasising the value of long-term studies in informing adaptation to climate change. KEY WORDS: Climate change · Rocky shores · Time series · Grazer-algae interactions · Ecological forecasting · Adaptational policy · Europe Full text in pdf format NextCite this article as: Hawkins SJ, Moore PJ, Burrows MT, Poloczanska E and others (2008) Complex interactions in a rapidly changing world: responses of rocky shore communities to recent climate change. Clim Res 37:123-133. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00768Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 37, No. 2-3. Online publication date: October 16, 2008 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 2008 Inter-Research.
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The English Channel may conveniently be divided into a western basin and an eastern basin separated by a line drawn approximately between the Cherbourg peninsula and the Isle of Wight. In these basins, the environmental factors are very different. Thus the water of the western basin is on average warmer and slightly more saline than that of the eastern basin and its temperature variation is less extreme. The French side of the Channel is warmer than the English coast only in the western basin. The tidal oscillations in the two basins are out of phase with each other and the strongest tidal currents occur where the two basins join. The main residual flow is up-Channel with minor coastal eddies. The shores at the western end of the Channel are generally rocky, they are close to deep water, and so are exposed to frequent heavy swells. The shores of the eastern basin are generally erodible, and accumulations of sand and shingle tend to reduce the force of the waves. The water of the eastern basin generally contains more suspended matter and the shores are usually scoured by sand and shingle. The distribution of the following animals is given in some detail and compared with earlier records: Ammonia sulcata, Actinia equina, Chthamalus stellatus, Balanus balanoides, B. perforatus, B. crenatus, B. improvisus, Elminius modestus, Verruca stroemia, Hemioniscus balani, Patella vulgata, P. depressa, P. aspera, Monodonta lineata, Gibbula umbilicalis, G. pennanti, G. cineraria, Littorina saxatilis, L. littoralis, L. littorea, L. neritoides, Paracentrotus lividus . The distribution of certain other species is also discussed: Balanus balanus, Haliotis tuberculata, Gibbula magus and Calliostoma zizyphinum .
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MEPS Marine Ecology Progress Series Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsTheme Sections MEPS 396:245-259 (2009) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps08378 Consequences of climate-driven biodiversity changes for ecosystem functioning of North European rocky shores S. J. Hawkins1,2,*, H. E. Sugden1, N. Mieszkowska2, P. J. Moore2,3, E. Poloczanska4, R. Leaper5, R. J. H. Herbert6,7, M. J. Genner2,8, P. S. Moschella2,9, R. C. Thompson10, S. R. Jenkins1,2, A. J. Southward2,†, M. T. Burrows11 1School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University, Menai Bridge, Anglesey LL59 5AB, UK 2Marine Biological Association of the UK, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK 3School of Natural Sciences, Edith Cowan University, Joondalup, Western Australia 6027, Australia 4Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research, PO Box 120, Cleveland, Queensland 4163, Australia 5Commonwealth Environment Research Facilities Program Marine Biodiversity Hub: Prediction Program, Tasmanian Aquaculture and Fisheries Institute, University of Tasmania, Locked Bag 49, Hobart 7001, Australia 6Medina Valley Field Centre, Dodnor Lane, Newport, Isle of Wight PO30 5TE, UK 7School of Conservation Sciences, Bournemouth University, Christchurch House, Talbot Campus, Poole, Dorset BH12 5BB, UK 8School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Woodland Road, Bristol BS8 1UG, UK 9CIESM – The Mediterranean Science Committee, 16 bd de Suisse, MC 98000, Monaco 10Marine Biology and Ecology Research Centre, Marine Institute, University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK 11Scottish Association for Marine Sciences, Dunstaffnage Marine Laboratory, Oban, Argyll PA37 1QA, UK *Email: s.hawkins@bangor.ac.uk †Deceased ABSTRACT: We review how intertidal biodiversity is responding to globally driven climate change, focusing on long-term data from rocky shores in the British Isles. Physical evidence of warming around the British Isles is presented and, whilst there has been considerable fluctuation, sea surface temperatures are at the highest levels recorded, surpassing previous warm periods (i.e. late 1950s). Examples are given of species that have been advancing or retreating polewards over the last 50 to 100 yr. On rocky shores, the extent of poleward movement is idiosyncratic and dependent upon life history characteristics, dispersal capabilities and habitat requirements. More southern, warm water species have been recorded advancing than northern, cold water species retreating. Models have been developed to predict likely assemblage composition based on future environmental scenarios. We present qualitative and quantitative forecasts to explore the functional consequences of changes in the identity, abundance and species richness of gastropod grazers and foundation species such as barnacles and canopy-forming algae. We forecast that the balance of primary producers and secondary consumers is likely to change along wave exposure gradients matching changes occurring with latitude, thereby shifting the balance between export and import of primary production. Increases in grazer and sessile invertebrate diversity are likely to be accompanied by decreasing primary production by large canopy-forming fucoids. The reasons for such changes are discussed in the context of emerging theory on the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. KEY WORDS: Climate change · Intertidal · Range shifts · Biodiversity · Ecosystem functioning · Northeast Atlantic Full text in pdf format PreviousNextCite this article as: Hawkins SJ, Sugden HE, Mieszkowska N, Moore PJ and others (2009) Consequences of climate-driven biodiversity changes for ecosystem functioning of North European rocky shores. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 396:245-259. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps08378Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in MEPS Vol. 396. Online publication date: December 09, 2009 Print ISSN: 0171-8630; Online ISSN: 1616-1599 Copyright © 2009 Inter-Research.
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