Term Structure Models with Negative Interest Rates

This paper proposes a new term structure model to generalize the Gaussian affine model and the Black model with an efficient and accurate solution method. The new model assumes that arbitrage between money or reserves and government bonds works but not perfectly. The new model enables us to quantify the effects of forward guidance, quantitative easing, and the negative interest rate policy. Estimation results for Switzerland, Germany, and Japan show that the new model outperforms both the Gaussian affine model and the Black model. Moreover, the results indicate that the power of arbitrage moves in tandem with basis swap spreads.