Analysis of the demand for family planning

Fertility intentions and reproductive risk were used to segment Perus potential market for contraceptives using data from the 1991-92 Demographic and Health Survey. The four programmatic groups of fertile-aged women in union included 41.4% not wanting more children and at high risk 30.5% not wanting more children and at moderate or low risk 12.8% wanting to space and 15.4% wanting a child in the near future. 84.6% of fertile-aged married women thus needed a contraceptive method to avoid unwanted pregnancy or high risk pregnancy. A range of appropriate methods was identified for each of the four programmatic groups based on method efficacy clinical contraindications and legal restrictions. Projections of the prevalence method mix and sources of service took into account the range of appropriate methods local preferences for particular methods local availability of health posts and infrastructure and the rational use of limited resources. The four programmatic groups were disaggregated by age to take into account recommendations for use of oral contraceptives surgical sterilization and IUDs. The segmentation by source of supply was done separately for type of method and rural or urban residence. Marital status proportion of fertile-aged women socioeconomic status and other factors were heterogeneously distributed within and between the 13 planning regions. An estimated 7% of women were infertile 23.9% were at low reproductive risk 25.6% at medium risk and 50.5% at high risk because of age parity or a history of abortion neonatal death prematurity or cesarean delivery. Among women not wanting more children at high and medium or at low risk respectively 66.6% and 65.1% were using a method but only 30.0% and 32.0% were using an appropriate method. The projected method mix and sources of supply are presented for Lima as an illustration of application of the methodology. The projected method mix for Lima eliminates use of natural methods withdrawal and barrier methods for women wanting no more children and use of oral contraceptives for high risk women.