Distributional effects of carbon pricing in Brazil under the Paris Agreement

Abstract This paper assesses the distributional effects of carbon pricing on Brazilian households. We apply a multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with representation of multiple households according to a family expenditure survey. Important questions for policy makers in Brazil are addressed. What are the economic effects of introducing carbon pricing in Brazil? Is there a double dividend, with economic and environmental benefits, when carbon revenue is recycled through tax rebates? Could carbon revenue contribute to the financing of social spending and to income distribution improvements in Brazil? Results show that carbon pricing avoids further carbon intensive infrastructure lock-in by further promoting biomass in electricity generation and biofuels in the transportation sector. Lump-sum transfers from carbon revenue help boosting income of lower deciles up to +4.5%, while targeting transfers to most vulnerable groups leads to an income growth of +42.2% by 2030. Brazil has a large gap in terms of effective carbon pricing when compared to other countries that could be addressed in the context of the ongoing tax reform debate, with carbon revenue contributing to the financing of social spending. Our analysis examines different policy design options and contribute to the debate about fiscal reform and socioeconomic effects of carbon pricing in Brazil.