Location-specific forecast at Sriharikota during the launch of GSLV-F01

The present study was carried out to examine the performance of two high-resolution mesoscale/regional atmospheric models to provide real time short range forecast during the GSLV-F01 launch on 20 September 2004. The main objective was to provide vertical shear of horizontal wind, which is very important for launch operations. The models are integrated to provide forecasts 36 h in advance. The model predictions are compared with observations and their performances are evaluated in terms of statistical skill scores. The mesoscale model of Pennsylvania State University (PSU)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) MM5 was found to perform better than the High-resolution Regional Model (HRM) though marginally. Performance of MM5 model was further investigated after improvement of model initial condition with insertion of conventional observations into the large-scale global analysis to perform reanalysis at high resolution (horizontal resolution of 9 km). Results indicate significant improvement in model performance with improvement in initial condition.