Modelling dairy farming and grazing in the Netherlands: scenarios and results

In this paper we analyse the impact of different grazing policies on number of dairy cows in different grazing categories in 2025 by model simulation in the Netherlands. It can be generally concluded that in the absence of intervention there is a strong tendency towards a decline in grazing on Dutch dairy farms. This tendency is not inevitable and it can be counteracted by policies aiming at higher percentages of grazing on dairy farms. External information about differences in costs between alternative and observed grazing technology is used to calibrate the PMP model. This results into a more flexible substitution between alternative technologies.