PREDIKSI PERUBAHAN TUTUPAN LAHAN DENGAN MODEL MARKOV CHAIN DAN ANN-MARKOV DI DAS KRUENG ACEH (Land cover change prediction using Markov Chain and ANN-Markov Model in Krueng Aceh Watershed)

Prediction of land cover change will be a consideration in determining the development strategy in the future. There are many methods for predicting  land cover change. It depends on data availability, model algorithms and output needed. The objective of this reasearch was to predict land cover change from 2007 to 2020 in the Krueng Aceh watershed. The method used remote sensing and GIS.  The Markov Chain (MC) and Artificial Neural Network-Markov (ANN-M) models were used to understand the spatio-temporal dynamics of land cover. The accuracy of the classified imagery was obtained from on-screen digitation using  medium resolution landsat-8 OLI image in 2020 with Kappa Accuracy around 84%. Both prediction algorithms used year 2007 (T1) and year 2017 (T2) land cover data to calculated the probability of land cover change prediction in year 2020 (T3). The Kappa Accuracy of both models shows a strong correlation between the simulated land cover maps and the results of visual interpretation (ANN=87.81% and MC=88.69%), this proves high accuracy of both models.