Genomic and Metagenomic Approaches for Predicting Pathogen Evolution.

Global climate change can alter the distribution of microbial pathogens and vectors that transmit infectious diseases, exposing humans to newly emerging or reemerging diseases. Early detection of potential pathogens and vectors in the environment can facilitate upstream interventions that limit the spread of infectious disease. Metagenomics is the analysis of DNA sequences from a population of microorganisms in a particular environment, followed by the computational reconstruction of the data to determine what organisms are present and predict their role in the environment. Defining the microbial populations associated with humans, animals, and their environment provides insight into the structure of microbial communities in any particular niche, including the abundance, diversity, and composition of the microbes and viruses present. It can also reveal the distribution of virulence genes within that niche. These data can be used to identify reservoirs of pathogens in an environment and predict environments with a high probability for evolution of new pathogens or outbreaks caused by known pathogens, thereby facilitating approaches to prevent infections of animals or humans before serious outbreaks of infectious disease.