Movie Revenue Prediction Based on Purchase Intention Mining Using YouTube Trailer Reviews

Abstract The increase in acceptability and popularity of social media has made extracting information from the data generated on social media an emerging field of research. An important branch of this field is predicting future events using social media data. This paper is focused on predicting box-office revenue of a movie by mining people's intention to purchase a movie ticket, termed purchase intention, from trailer reviews. Movie revenue prediction is important due to risks involved in movie production despite the high cost involved in the production. Previous studies in this domain focus on the use of twitter data and IMDB reviews for the prediction of movies that have already been released. In this paper, we build a model for movie revenue prediction prior to the movie's release using YouTube trailer reviews. Our model consists of novel methods of calculating purchase intention, positive-to-negative sentiment ratio, and like-to-dislike ratio for movie revenue prediction. Our experimental results prove the superiority of our approach compared to three baseline approaches and achieved a relative absolute error of 29.65%.