Preoperative Serum Prostate-specific Antigen, Clinical Stage and Gleason Sum as Basis for Predicting Final Pathological Stage in Japanese Patients with Prostate Cancer

By logistic regression analysis and log-likelihood ratio chi-square test, the usefulness of preoperative variables (prostate specific antigen [PSA], clinical stage and biopsy Gleason sum) for predicting the final pathological stage was assessed in 77 patients with clinically resectable prostate cancers. Pathologically, 32 (41.6%) had organ-confined disease. Extracapsular extension was found in 41 (53.2%), seminal vesicle involvement in 30 (39.0%), positive pelvic lymph nodes in 10 (13.0%) and a positive surgical margin in 27 (35.1%). Each preoperative variable was found to be significantly associated with the final pathological stage. Any combination of these variables was more predictive for extraprostatic disease, compared with each individual. variable. Extraprostatic spread was found more frequently in patients with lower serum PSA in this Japanese elderly male population compared with North American males. These preoperative variables considered in combination may provide valuable information for management decisions related to prostate cancer. Serum PSA alone cannot reliably predict pathological stage on an individual basis except in patients with a PSA level of 20 ng/ml or greater. The high incidence of extraprostatic spread at intermediate PSA underscores the importance of selecting an ideal cutoff value for PSA-based screening in a Japanese male population. (Jpn J Clin Oncol 26: 438-444, 1996)