Desenvolvimento de modelo preditivo do estado do esforço inovativo e da maturidade da gestão da empresa utilizando cadeia de Markov

In view of the relevance of innovation in the development of nations, and in the difficulty of developing it, many authors have focused on how to create it in the business environment. This has generated a myriad of paths as an option to be followed. Identifying the effectiveness of the path chosen has become of extreme relevance to the decision maker. Thus, this research aims to investigate how the development of innovation in the business environment occurs based on the innovative effort and maturity of the management. The model used corresponds to a Markov Chain in discrete time, which in defining the levels of maturity (states) of the companies and obtaining the probabilities of transition in a corresponding step between levels, allows to describe and predict the future states of these organizations. The mathematical model developed was built under the aegis of the macroeconomic scenario of the period 2014-2017, of the technological availability then available and usual by the companies, and of the organizational models then implemented. Significant changes in this scope tend to modify the model's basis of support. With this research, it was concluded, through the developed mathematical model, that the dynamics of management interaction X innovative effort is fundamental for the enterprise to implement a systematic innovation.