Waste tire recycling assessment: Road application potential and carbon emissions reduction analysis of crumb rubber modified asphalt in China

Abstract The rapid growth in automobile production in China during the past few decades has caused numerous tires to be scrapped, and their disposal has become a significant challenge. This study proposes a Triple Exponential Smoothing prediction model to predict the supply of waste tires in 2019–2023, and the demand for these tires in three road construction scenarios. In addition, performance analysis is conducted to evaluate the carbon emissions produced in the production process of crumb rubber, modified asphalt, and styrene–butadiene–styrene modified asphalt. The reduction potential of carbon emissions when using crumb rubber for road construction is measured to contribute to the sustainable management of waste tires. The results demonstrate that the prediction model employed for prediction of waste tire production is robust, and the prediction results can be used to evaluate waste tire recycling. In addition, crumb rubber can be used as an efficient and environmentally friendly method for recycling end-of-life tires. Expanding the proportion of rubber powder asphalt application is an effective method for balancing the supply and demand contradiction of crumb rubber. Moreover, the potential for energy savings and emissions reduction, in addition to the economic benefits of using crumb rubber modified asphalt, are significantly higher than those employing styrene–butadiene–styrene modified asphalt. These results indicate the possibility of a circular economy and decreased dependence on non-renewable asphalt resources.