Low aerobic capacity in middle-aged men associated with increased mortality rates during 45 years of follow-up

BackgroundLow aerobic capacity has been associated with increased mortality in short-term studies. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive power of aerobic capacity for mortality in middle-aged men during 45-years of follow-up.DesignThe study design was a population-based prospective cohort study.MethodsA representative sample from Gothenburg of men born in 1913 was followed from 50–99 years of age, with periodic medical examinations and data from the National Hospital Discharge and Cause of Death registers. At 54 years of age, 792 men performed an ergometer exercise test, with 656 (83%) performing the maximum exercise test.ResultsIn Cox regression analysis, low predicted peak oxygen uptake (VO2max), smoking, high serum cholesterol and high mean arterial blood pressure at rest were significantly associated with mortality. In multivariable analysis, an association was found between predicted VO2max tertiles and mortality, independent of established risk factors. Hazard ratios were 0.79 (95% co...