Consequences of delaying actions for safeguarding ecosystem services in the Brazilian Cerrado

Abstract In a world of increasing demand for natural resources, conservation actions are frequently postponed, even though this may impair biodiversity and the supply of ecosystem services (ES). Here, we evaluated the consequences of delaying conservation actions to protect ES in the Brazilian Cerrado, the most diverse tropical savanna in the world, which is threatened by rapid expansion of agriculture. We generated land use maps for the present and two future periods (2025 and 2050), using a comprehensive land use model. Based on these maps, we modeled the provision of six ES: water yield, sediment retention, nutrient retention, carbon storage, net primary productivity and wild food provision. We identified priority areas for safeguarding ES to meet four conservation targets (i.e. 10%, 20%, 30% and 40% of each ES). We found that expected land use changes tended to diminish ES provision over time and modify their spatial distribution. Priority areas in the region also tended to differ spatially between present and future. Moreover, priority areas identified for the future will encompass more extensive altered environments than those for present day landscapes. Our study highlights the importance of avoiding delays in conservation actions, as this may exacerbate conflicts between conservation and development. Arguments based on ES could create new incentives to simultaneously conserve both ES and the biodiversity associated with them in the region.