Application of mathematical modeling methods in the evaluation of severity of ischemic stroke in patients with arterial hypertension

AIM: To study the possibility of applying methods of mathematical modeling in assessing the severity of ischemic stroke in patients with arterial hypertension. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study included 80 patients with ischemic stroke. Blood pressure was measured. Transcutaneous polarography was used to measure the oxygen tension in tissues. Measurements of gas composition of the blood and thickness of the intima-media complex were performed. The level of stable metabolites of nitric oxide in the blood was determined. Measurement of endothelin-1 in the blood was performed by enzyme immunoassay. NIHSS scale was administered to assess the neurological status. Patients were divided into 3 groups according to the degree of neurological deficit. The control group consisted of 10 people without signs of vascular pathology. RESULTS: An increase in the neurological deficit was accompanied by an increase in the level of endothelin-1, a decrease in the level of stable metabolites of nitric oxide, and a reduction in tissue oxygenation. Discriminative functions were developed for each group of patients using discriminant analysis based on the data obtained in the study. The most statistically significant were two signs: the level of systolic blood pressure and the content of stable metabolites of nitric oxide in the blood. CONCLUSION: Thus, the imbalance in the indices of endothelium-dependent mechanisms of vascular tone regulation reflect the severity of the condition in ischemic stroke. The method of discriminant analysis allows the creation of sufficiently reliable mathematical models that can have practical significance, and can be used as a method of clarifying the severity of the condition in the acute period of ischemic stroke.