Evaluating a Multiscale Mechanistic Model of the Immune System to Predict Human Immunogenicity for a Biotherapeutic in Phase 1

A mechanistic model of the immune response was evaluated for its ability to predict anti-drug antibody (ADA) and their impact on pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics (PD) for a biotherapeutic in a phase 1 clinical trial. Observed ADA incidence ranged from 33 to 67% after single doses and 27–50% after multiple doses. The model captured the single dose incidence well; however, there was overprediction after multiple dosing. The model was updated to include a T-regulatory (Treg) cell mediated tolerance, which reduced the overprediction (relative decrease in predicted incidence rate of 21.5–59.3% across multidose panels) without compromising the single dose predictions (relative decrease in predicted incidence rate of 0.6–13%). The Treg-adjusted model predicted no ADA impact on PK or PD, consistent with the observed data. A prospective phase 2 trial was simulated, including co-medication effects in the form of corticosteroid-induced immunosuppression. Predicted ADA incidences were 0–10%, depending on co-medication dosage. This work demonstrates the utility in applying an integrated, iterative modeling approach to predict ADA during different stages of clinical development.