How recycling mitigates supply risks of critical raw materials: Extension of the geopolitical supply risk methodology applied to information and communication technologies in the European Union

Abstract The Geopolitical Supply Risk method, originally developed by Gemechu et al. (2016) and subsequently extended by Helbig et al. (2016a) and Cimprich et al. (2017 , 2018 ), is aimed at incorporating supply risk assessment of “critical raw materials” as a complement to environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) within life cycle sustainability assessment (LCSA). In this article, we further extend the method to consider the risk-mitigating potential of domestic recycling – thus advancing considerations of “circular economy” strategies for managing materials criticality. Our method captures two mechanisms through which domestic recycling can affect supply risk: a reduction in total imports (the “reduction effect”), and a potential redistribution of the import supply mix (the “redistribution effect”). We consider a range of outcomes from a best-case scenario (displacing imports from the riskiest trade partners) to a worst-case scenario (displacing imports from the least risky trade partners). Using our recently developed automated calculation tool, which significantly improves the practical applicability of the method by facilitating the otherwise burdensome computations required, we test and demonstrate our method on 13 raw materials used for information and communication technologies in the European Union. Thus, we test the notion that recycling mitigates supply risk. The reality is more complex. To maximize risk mitigation, recycling should ideally take place domestically, recycled material should be reinserted into the domestic economy, and the import supply mix should be considered, especially given that the redistribution effect sometimes exceeds the reduction effect.