Fractional seroprevalence rates in common prey species can cause more than half of feral cats to be exposed to Toxoplasma gondii annually

Abstract In many ecosystems, rodents comprise a major component of cat (Felis catus) diets, and life cycle diagrams of Toxoplasma gondii typically depict small rodents as quintessential intermediate hosts. Counter-intuitively, small rodents often experience a lower T. gondii seroprevalence than do larger sympatric mammals. This observation has repeatedly caused confusion about the relative importance of small rodents to the ecology of T. gondii. To address this confusion, we modified the Reed-Frost epidemic model to develop a simple binomial equation to model T. gondii transmission from prey to feline predators. This equation takes into account variations in prey seroprevalence and the frequency with which they are consumed by felids. Even when T. gondii seroprevalence in prey is