Predicción de la dinámica temporal de egresos hospitalarios por obesidad en niños y jóvenes en Estados Unidos Prediction of the temporal dynamic of hospital discharges for obesity in children and youth in the united states

ABSTRACTThe prevalence of overweight in children worldwide is rising in developing countries. Diseases associated with childhood overweight as asthma, sleep apnea and diabetes mellitus, the latter being the most common among children and adolescents, imply another problem: the high cost to health, which has been analyzed by the National Center for Health Statistics in USA. The objective of this research was study mathematically the dynamics of the percentage of hospital discharges for overweight and obese patients between 6-17 years of age in the United States in order to predict the percentage of hospital discharges for obesity in the year 1999 in the context of probabilistic random walk, speci fi cally from a total space of probability for analyzing the probabilistic behavior of increases and decreases, from the years between 1983 and 1998, in the United States. The predicted range for 1999 was 1,17%, which was then compared with data from the National Center for Health, which reported a 1,15%, achieving a 98,01% prediction. It was established a physical and mathematical order underlying the dynamics of hospital discharges rate for obesity in children, making predictions on its trajectory.Key words: Childhood, obesity, random walk, predictions, United States.Rev Chil Nutr Vol. 42, No4, Diciembre 2015