The effects of imported cases, climatic variability and vector population on dengue fever in Guangzhou City, China

* Dan Zhao, Zhongjie Li and Yonghui Zhang contributed equally * Correspondence: Weizhong Yang: ywz126@vip.sina.com; Wenbiao Hu: w.hu@sph.uq.edu.au Background Dengue fever (DF) has been recognised as the most important arboviral disease in the world. Nearly 1.8 billion people are estimated to be at risk of DF. DF occurred frequently in Guangdong, China. Evaluating the risk of DF transmission could contribute to the surveillance and early warning system. However, the relationship between the risk posed by infected travelers, climate and vectors was still unclear. Aims The research aims to explore the impact of imported cases, climatic variability and vector population dynamics on DF transmission in Guangzhou City, China. Methods Data on climate factors, vector surveillance and notified DF cases in Guangzhou City from Jan 2001 to Dec 2010 were collected. Multiple logistic regression modelandtime series negative binomial model were used to assess the associations between climate factors, vector, imported DF c...