Change in the ASF entry risk into Japan as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic

Using a model developed previously by the authors, a risk assessment was conducted to predict the change in the risk of ASF entering Japan as a result of the coronavirus pandemic in humans. The annual probability of ASF entering Japan was calculated to be 23% (90% prediction interval: 0-91%), 4.7% (0-24%) in February, 0.4% (0-2.1%) in March and 0.004% (0-0.01%) in April 2020 indicating a significant decline in the risk of ASF entry into Japan from China. The decline was attributed to a decline in the number of air travelers from China and amount of restaurant food.