Village-level supply reliability of surface water irrigation in rural China: effects of climate change
2018
Abstract. Surface water, as the largest part of water resources, plays an
important role on China's agricultural production and food security. And
surface water is vulnerable to climate change. This paper aims to examine the
status of the supply reliability of surface water irrigation, and discusses
how it is affected by climate change in rural China. The field data we used
in this study was collected from a nine-province field survey during 2012 and
2013. Climate data are offered by China's National Meteorological Information
Center which contains temperature and precipitation in the past 30 years. A
Tobit model (or censored regression model) was used to estimate the influence
of climate change on supply reliability of surface water irrigation. Descriptive results showed that, surface water supply reliability was
74 % in the past 3 years. Econometric results revealed that climate
variables significantly influenced the supply reliability of surface water
irrigation. Specifically, temperature is negatively related with the supply
reliability of surface water irrigation; but precipitation positively
influences the supply reliability of surface water irrigation. Besides,
climate influence differs by seasons. In a word, this paper improves our
understanding of the impact of climate change on agriculture irrigation and
water supply reliability in the micro scale, and provides a scientific basis
for relevant policy making.
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