Economic Readiness Level Considerations for a Robust LEO Economy

The reduced gravity environment of space provides a unique opportunity to further our understanding of various materials phenomena involving the molten, fluidic and gaseous states as well as life science applications where, contrary to earlier beliefs, microgravity induces changes in single cells and simple organisms; not only in large organisms with a complex overall response to gravity (or lack thereof). The potential breadth of commercial opportunities in microgravity thus spans over many verticals of the private sector with applications ranging from fiber optics, high-resolution crystals, microencapsulation, 3D organs to perfume and color dyes. Overall, products manufactured in microgravity hold the promise to have key properties surpassing their best terrestrial counterparts. Commercialization, also known as taking a new technology to market, is a journey in itself where the business, economic, market and technological components must align to generate a successful outcome. A business perspective is very different than technology maturation, which can be measured with the usual Technology Readiness Level (TRL) approach. In order for a technology to be ready for commercialization, it must not only be mature (high TRL), but it must also have a compelling business case, and the means to scale up production must be identified and practical. Creating a sustainable economy in an emerging market such as microgravity is especially challenging because of the complexity (high risks, lack of standardization) involved in predicting future growth. This complexity can easily overwhelm the fact that many of the products have an attractive touch of space which aids with branding and marketing.This paper builds upon the concept of the verticals of microgravity, capturing not only new lines of investigations but also promising killer apps originating from microgravity to discuss and define the notion of Economic Readiness Level (ERL). To advance in ERL, the technology itself may not necessarily need to mature at all, but the understanding of its economic potential does. Building upon ERL, a model that ultimately leads to the creation of pathways for infusion of private capital and a sustainable commercial microgravity LEO-Earth economy will be discussed.