灰色GM（1,1）模型預測我國勞保職災給付研究

This study applied GM (1,1) model of grey system theory to establish the forecasting models of the ratio per thousandth for the labor insurance payments of occupational accidents in Taiwan based on the annual statistics of Bureau of Labor Insurance. The ratio per thousandth of the total benefit payment, the benefit payment on injuries or illness, and the benefit payment on disability represent excellent results in the rolling forecast modeling on 5 to 10 periods. As to the benefit payment on death, the accuracies of grey prediction on the ratio per thousandth are generally acceptable on less than 8 periods. Predicting the trend of insurance payments of occupational accidents, the ratio per thousandth is going down on the total payment, disability payment and death payment, and rising on the injuries or illness payment.