Modelling the Effects of Stigma on Leprosy

The World Health Organization’s leprosy-elimination campaign has significantly reduced global leprosy prevalence, but approximately 214,000 new cases of leprosy are reported each year. An ancient and neglected affliction, leprosy is also one of the most heavily stigmatised diseases of all time. We developed a mathematical model to examine the effects of stigma on sustaining disease transmission, using low and high degrees of stigma, as well as in its absence. Our results show that stigma does indeed play a central role in the long-term sustainability of leprosy. We also examined sensitivity of the outcome to all parameters and showed that the effects of stigma could increase the number of infected individuals by a factor of 80. Therefore both targeted education and shifts in cultural attitudes towards leprosy will be necessary for the eventual eradication of the disease.