Integrated system for forecasting electric energy and load for states and utility service areas

The integrated system for forecasting electric energy and load is documented. In the system, the service area models of electrical energy (kWh) and the load distribution (minimum and maximum loads and load duration curve) are linked to the state-level model of electrical energy (kWh). Thus, the service area forecasts are conditional upon the state-level forecasts. Such a linkage reduces considerably the data requirements for modeling service area electricity demand. Four utilities are selected to provide examples of the integrated forecasting system. The statistical results suggest that the use of selected, important demand determinants, such as price and income, to explain the differences in electricity demand growth between the service area and the remainder of the corresponding state is appropriate. The forecasting results show that the forecasted growth rates of electricity demand, in some cases, differ substantially between the service area and the corresponding state.