An efficient probabilistic design approach for tunnel face stability by inverse reliability analysis

Abstract In order to maintain the safety of underground constructions that significantly involves geo-material uncertainties, this paper delivers a new framework for conducting reliability-based design (RBD) of shallow tunnel face stability, utilizing a simplified inverse first-order reliability method (FORM). The limit state functions defining the tunnel face stability are established for both collapse and blow-out modes of the tunnel face, respectively, and the deterministic results of the support pressure are obtained through three-dimensional finite element limit analysis. Because the inverse reliability method can directly capture the design support pressure according to prescribed target reliability index, the computation cost for probabilistic design of the tunnel face stability is greatly reduced. By comparison with Monte Carlo simulation results, the accuracy and feasibility of the proposed method are verified. Further, this study presents a series of reliability-based design charts for vividly understanding the limit support pressure on tunnel face in both frictional soil and non-frictional soil stratums, and their optimal support pressure ranges are highlighted. The results show that in the case of frictional soil stratum, the blowout failure of the tunnel face is extremely unlikely, whereas the collapse is the only possible failure mode. The parametric study of various geotechnical uncertainties also reveals that ignoring the potential correlation between soil shear strength parameters will lead to over-designed support pressure, and the coefficient of variation of internal friction angle has a greater influence on the tunnel face failure probability than that of the cohesion.