Establishment of the Forecast Mathematical Model of Citrus Bacterial Canker Disease

Field occurrence and epidemic regularity of Citrus Bacterial Canker Disease(CBCD) was investigated from 2001 to 2003. Based on the data of investigation, the forecast mathematical model of CBCD is, Y _n = -33.832+ 1.193 X _(1n) + 2.259 X _(2n) + 0.008 X_(3n) ( R_Y =0.959~*), which established by using the method of DPS data processing system . Disease occurrence is closely related to precipitation and rain days ,and their related coefficient were R_1= 0.916~* and R_2=0.868~* respectively. The findings showed that field occurrence and epidemic regularity of CBCD in middle-short period could be forecasted by using the forecast mathematical model of CBCD.